The Arizona Cardinals enter the 2025 NFL season with high hopes and lingering question marks.
One of the biggest storylines on the defensive side of the ball is how edge rusher Josh Sweat will perform.
This offseason, the Cardinals handed Sweat a four-year, $76.4 million contract.
Sweat came over from the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Cardinals brass hopes he could be the player to transform their pass rush.
However, ESPN Analyst Seth Walder recently released his projected top 50 sack leaders of 2025.
With Sweat coming in at #43.
That projection should raise some eyebrows, with Arizona needing substantial play on defense to help this franchise lift out of the average and back into the fold of the NFC.
Josh Sweat Lands at #43
Sweat enters the 2025 season with the weight of being the Cardinals‘ premier pass rusher.
For a player who has never hit double-digit sacks in a season, that is a tall order.
His 2024 output totaled 8 sacks in total, which is solid, but far from elite.
The Cardinals will need more production from Sweat if they are to be successful on defense.
ESPN’s Seth Walder projected Sweat to have 6.7 sacks this season, which is far from ideal.
And while Walder did point out Sweat’s production from the Eagles Super Bowl run wasn’t factored in, there is still room for concern.
Moreover, Walder explained that Sweats’ production could fall considering he is now on a team with fewer elite players than the team he came from.
The Cardinals are hoping for Sweat to significantly beat this forecast considering the four-year, $76.4 million deal they handed him this offseason. “Eight sacks wasn’t awful in the regular season, but he recorded that production on an elite team and in a season when his pass rush win rate dropped precipitously,” said Walder.
Walder’s projection clearly indicates a step back for Sweat, something the Cardinals can’t afford.
Cardinals Need Defense To Step Up
Last season, no player on the Cardinals had more than Zaven Collins‘ 5 sacks.
There needs to be more production from the Cardinals defensive front if they are to pull back into the NFC West race.
With a youthful defensive secondary on the roster, a strong unit up front will help ease the secondary throughout the season.
In addition, fellow pass rushers Baron Browning and Zevon Collins will need to step their game up to help open Sweat up for more success.
However, given the investment in Sweat, if he lingers around Walder’s projected sack total, cracks may start to form.
Walder also highlighted that Sweat’s pass rush win rate has dropped over time.
“Over the past four seasons, Sweat’s pass rush win rate has dropped from 24% to 22% to 20% to 11%,” said Walder.
Once again, those numbers indicate concern, especially given Sweat was playing on arguably the best defense in the NFL last season.
The Cardinals are betting big on Josh Sweat.
However, the numbers do suggest risk.
Will Sweat be able to rise to the challenge and lift not only the Cardinals pass rush but his surrounding players on defense?
That is a big question that could define how the Cardinals perform on defense this season.
Cardinals Betting Big On New Defensive Player To Deliver