Despite throwing 10 interceptions in 2025, tied for 11th-most in the NFL, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, a four-time Pro Bowler, on Friday received an eye-opening top-five rating in a key new stat published by Pro Football Focus.
PFF’s new big-time-throw-to-turnover-worthy-play ratio ranked Allen fifth among all NFL quarterbacks, with a ratio of 1.81. He produced 29 throws PFF classified as big-time against 16 it deemed turnover-worthy — a more favorable balance than the conventional touchdown-to-interception line suggests.
Interceptions, PFF explains, are outcomes and should not always count against a quarterback’s performance. For example, a defender can drop a ball that should have been picked, or a receiver can tip an otherwise solid throw into an opponent’s hands. PFF says only 49.09% of turnover-worthy throws from 2016 through 2025 became actual interceptions, while roughly one-third of all interceptions came on throws the site did not grade as turnover-worthy.
That does not erase Allen’s 10 picks. But it does allow evaluators to see them in a new light.
Allen paired his 29 big-time throws with an 84.2 PFF passing grade and 0.18 EPA per play, placing him among the league’s most productive high-difficulty passers even as Buffalo’s traditional passing numbers were more modest than in some of his peak seasons.
Joe Burrow led the category with an extraordinary 9.00 ratio — 18 big-time throws and only two turnover-worthy plays in eight games. Matthew Stafford was second at 2.23, Jalen Hurts third at 2.08 and Jordan Love fourth at 2.00. Allen came next.
| PFF TOP 10 QBs — BIG TIME THROW TO TURNOVER-WORTHY PLAY RATIO (2025) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source: Pro Football Focus • pff.com • League baseline: 1.20 BTT/TWP ratio | ||||
| Rank | Quarterback | Team | BTT/TWP Ratio | Key PFF Numbers |
| 1 | Joe Burrow | Bengals | 9.00 | 18 BTT, 2 TWP; 0.7% TWP rate (lowest in PFF era with 250+ dropbacks); 6.6% BTT rate (4th); 91.3 passing grade (2nd); 288 dropbacks / 8 games |
| 2 | Matthew Stafford | Rams | 2.23 | NFL-leading 58 BTT (most in a single season in PFF data, 24 more than next); 26 TWP; 7.7% BTT rate (led NFL); 9.8-yard aDOT (most aggressive in top 10) |
| 3 | Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 2.08 | 25 BTT, 12 TWP on 489 attempts; 4.8% BTT rate (~league avg); 2.0% TWP rate (tied 4th-lowest); 9.2-yard aDOT (3rd-deepest in top 10); 76.7 passing grade |
| 4 | Jordan Love | Packers | 2.00 | 88.7 passing grade; 0.24 EPA/play (highest in top 10); 5.9% BTT rate (5th in NFL) |
| 5 | Josh Allen | Bills | 1.81 | 29 BTT, 16 TWP; 84.2 passing grade; 0.18 EPA/play; 10 INTs and 18th in TD-INT — PFF notes the TD-INT ranking overstated the problem |
| 6 | Kirk Cousins | Falcons | 1.80 | 9 BTT in 10 games; 3.2% BTT rate (lowest in group); 1.7% TWP rate (3rd-lowest in NFL) |
| 7 | Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 1.69 | 27 BTT, 16 TWP on 531 attempts; 68.8 passing grade (lowest in top 10); -0.02 EPA/play; 6.6-yard aDOT (shortest in group) |
| 8 | Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 1.63 | 31 BTT, 19 TWP on 600 attempts; 4,552 yards; 85.4 passing grade; 0.18 EPA/play; 76.6% adjusted completion % at 8.6-yard aDOT |
| 9 | Tyler Shough | Saints | 1.63 | Best ratio among 2025 rookies; 2.0% TWP rate (tied 4th-lowest); 3.8% BTT rate; rest of rookie class finished below the 1.20 league baseline |
| 10 | Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 1.62 | 34 BTT (4th in NFL), 21 TWP; 5.7% BTT rate (top six); 79.9 passing grade |
| BTT = Big Time Throw • TWP = Turnover-Worthy Play • aDOT = Average Depth of Target • EPA = Expected Points Added • League baseline ratio: 1.20. Source: PFF (pff.com), 2025 season. | ||||
The Larger Josh Allen Case
PFF ranked Allen sixth among quarterbacks in its final overall 2025 grades, behind Stafford, Burrow, Drake Maye, Brock Purdy and Love. His 87.4 grade still placed him securely among the NFL’s elite.
He remained the quarterback defenses dread when a play breaks down, when a third-and-long requires something unreasonable, or when a throw must arrive in a window that barely exists.
PFF’s larger body of work makes the case even more clearly. Entering 2026, PFF ranked Allen No. 1 among NFL starters, ahead of Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. The site said Allen had earned a PFF grade of at least 90.0 in six straight seasons, the longest such streak of the PFF era.
Allen also made 141 big-time throws over the prior four seasons, 23 more than any other quarterback.
What the New Metric Measures
PFF’s ratio is an alternative to the familiar TD-INT statistic. A big-time throw is a difficult, high-value completion requiring exceptional placement, timing or aggression. A turnover-worthy play is a pass or decision that legitimately puts possession at risk.
The grading attaches to the attempt rather than the recorded result.
A receiver drops a perfectly placed 40-yard pass? Still a big-time throw.
A safety botches an easy interception on a forced ball into coverage? Still turnover-worthy.
According to PFF, Allen’s interception total overstated how often he made a pass that deserved to be picked.
The stat, of course, relies on PFF’s proprietary standards for what constitutes a “big-time throw” or “turnover-worthy play.” But the metric does capture what conventional numbers can miss, which is Allen’s willingness to attack — a trait that creates both his most spectacular plays and his most visible mistakes. In 2025, PFF found that the reward still outweighed the risk.
Bills Josh Allen Gets Eye-Opening Rating for 2025 Performance Before Opener