Caleb Williams is entering the 2026 season with expectations that would have sounded ridiculous after his rookie year. Now, they are starting to look increasingly reasonable.
NFL analyst Dan Parr made a bold prediction projecting Williams to win the NFL MVP award while becoming the first quarterback in Chicago Bears history to throw for 4,000 yards in a season – They also had Chicago finishing first in the NFC North for the second straight year.
That is pretty aggressive, sure. But for Bears fans who watched Williams take a major step forward in 2025, it’s not that difficult to imagine.
Williams already came super close to reaching the 4,000 yard mark last season as he finished with 3,942 passing yards, 27 TDs and seven interceptions while being sacked just 24 times in 17 games…
In other words – He needed only 58 more passing yards to accomplish something no Bears quarterback has ever done.
Williams is already within striking distance
4,000 yards was one of Caleb Williams’ stated goals heading into the 2025 season, and he nearly got there.
Williams went from 3,541 passing yards as a rookie to 3,942 in his second season. His touchdown total jumped from 20 to 27, while his interceptions increased only slightly from six to seven. And the Bears cut his sack total from an NFL worst 68 as a rookie to 24.
Sure there is still plenty for Williams to clean up. His 58.1 percent completion rate in 2025 was pretty bad and the Bears’ divisional round loss to the Los Angeles Rams exposed some of the inconsistency that remain in his game.
But that is also what makes the MVP prediction interesting. Williams does not need to become a completely different quarterback to make the leap. He needs to become a more consistent version of the player Bears fans already saw last season.
And he has another year in Ben Johnson’s offense to do it.
The Bears are giving Williams every reason to believe
The Chicago Bears aren’t approaching 2026 as a team hoping Caleb Williams can single handedly save the offense. They are building around him.
Ben Johnson’s first season in Chicago already produced a division championship and a playoff victory against the Packers. Now, the second year head coach is setting expectations even higher…
Johnson has said he wants the Bears to eventually have the highest scoring offense in NFL history, surpassing the 2013 Denver Broncos‘ mark of 37.9 points per game.
That is an outrageous goal. It is also exactly the type of environment that could produce a career year from Williams. And that’s where the MVP conversation starts to come in.
Winning the award would definitely require more than 4,000 passing yards. Williams would likely need to be among the league’s best quarterbacks statistically while also leading Chicago toward another division title and a deep playoff run. But the foundation is already there.
If Caleb Williams takes another step forward, Chicago Bears fans could be watching the end of one of the strangest statistical droughts in NFL history, and the beginning of something much bigger.
NFL Analyst Just Said What Bears Fans Were Already Thinking About Caleb Williams