The Chicago Bears weren’t far off from capturing the No. 1 seed in the NFC this postseason and the No. 2 spot remains theirs for the taking. But despite its accomplishments, Chicago heads into Week 18 with among the worst Super Bowl odds of any team in either conference.
Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk on Sunday, January 4 detailed the updated title odds for every franchise either already in the playoffs or with a chance to earn a spot following two outcomes on Saturday: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ victory over the Carolina Panthers, which leaves the NFC South Division up for grabs, and the Seattle Seahawks’ triumph over the San Francisco 49ers, which locked up the NFC West and No. 1 seed for Seattle.
The Seahawks have the best odds at plus-370, trailed slightly by the Los Angeles Rams (either the No. 5 or 6 seed in the NFC) at plus-450. The Denver Broncos, the likely No. 1 seed in the AFC, are plus-750.
Meanwhile, the Bears are near the bottom of the list with a plus-2200 chance to win their first ring since 1985-86, which would be just the second Chicago championship in the Super Bowl era.
Those odds have the Bears tied with the 49ers and the No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers, whom Chicago will host at Soldier Field if the Bears defeat the Detroit Lions Sunday and/or the Philadelphia Eagles lose to the Washington Commanders.
The only teams with worse title odds than Chicago heading into Sunday’s slate of games are the Los Angeles Chargers (plus-2800), Pittsburgh Steelers (plus-10000), Buccaneers (plus-15000) and Panthers (plus-20000).
Philadelphia and New England are each plus-950, while Buffalo is plus-1100 followed by the Jaguars at plus-1300, Texans at plus-1400 and Ravens at plus-2000.
Packers Probably Best Possible Matchup for Bears in Round 1 of Playoffs
GettyQuarterback Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers.
Chicago’s odds might bump slightly with a victory over Detroit in Week 18, as that would guarantee home-field advantage in Round 1. The Bears would also play at home in the Divisional Round assuming a victory over Super Wildcard Weekend.
Finally, a win would guarantee that Chicago hosts the Packers next week, which might be the best outcome for the Bears.
Chicago just beat Green Bay in Week 16, albeit via a 10-point fourth-quarter comeback that allowed the Bears a chance to win in overtime. The victory required an onside kick recovery and happened with Packers quarterback Jordan Love sidelined by a concussion for the entirety of the second half and extra period.
The Bears also played the Packers competitively in a seven-point loss at Lambeau Field in early December.
Bears head coach Ben Johnson spent the last three years as the Lions’ offensive coordinator dominating Green Bay in regular season play, and he and his staff have now prepared for the team twice in less than a month.
The Packers are also entering the playoffs with several key players sidelined by injury, including pass-rusher Micah Parsons and tight end Tucker Kraft, just to name two.
Bears’ Odds to Make Deep Playoff Run May Decrease Slightly With No. 3 Seed, Wildcard Matchup Against 49ers
GettySan Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy.
Should the Bears lose to the Lions, they run the risk of earning the No. 3 seed. In that scenario, Chicago plays either the 49ers, who they lost to narrowly on the road in Week 17, or the Los Angeles Rams.
The Niners would be the more attractive opponent, not to mention the most likely, as L.A. needs only to defeat the Arizona Cardinals at home in Week 18 to lock up the No. 5 seed. With the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl despite zero guaranteed home playoff games, the Rams are a team Chicago would do well to avoid for as long as possible.
San Francisco is also banged up and shares the same Super Bowl odds as the Bears and Packers, so that matchup might be a relative wash when compared to Chicago’s chances to best Green Bay in Round 1.
That said, dropping to the No. 3 seed would mean the Bears travel to play the Eagles should both teams win over Wildcard Weekend, a Round 2 game in which Chicago would surely enter as the underdog against the defending champions.
For what it’s worth, the Bears did beat the Eagles 24-15 in Week 13, which is why Chicago holds the regular season tiebreak.
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