Four first-round picks would normally provide the foundation for an NFL rebuild.
For the Cincinnati Bengals, they might only represent the price of losing legendary quarterback Joe Burrow.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell assigned Burrow a value of four first-round selections in his 2026 NFL trade tiers, placing a number on an offer that another team could make if Cincinnati ever listened.
The valuation carries a piece of NFL history.
The Miami Dolphins reportedly offered the Bengals four first-round picks for the No. 1 selection before the 2020 NFL draft. Cincinnati declined and used the pick on Burrow.
Six years later, ESPN arrived at the same number for the quarterback the Bengals refused to surrender in the draft.
Burrow’s Injury History Does Not Erase His Trade Value
Barnwell used the Deshaun Watson trade as the closest comparison. The Cleveland Browns sent three first-round selections, a third-rounder and two fourth-round picks to the Houston Texans in 2022.
The similarities between the two QBs were closer at the time than current day.
PFF gave Watson a 92.5 overall grade in his final full season with Houston, second among NFL quarterbacks. Burrow earned a 91.8 grade in 2025, also ranking second at the position.
That deal has since become a warning for teams considering an enormous quarterback trade, though.
Watson’s collapse in Cleveland sounded the alarm to other teams that would give up a similar package.
Burrow has proved plenty, although his age and availability complicate the calculation.
He turns 30 in December and suffered season-ending injuries in 2020 and 2023. A toe injury then cost him nine games in 2025.
His return showed why the price remains so high.
Burrow started Cincinnati’s final six games and led the NFL with 152 completions during that stretch.
He tied for second with 15 touchdown passes, ranked third with 1,620 passing yards and finished fifth with a 102.2 passer rating.
He also enters 2026 with the highest career completion percentage in NFL history among quarterbacks with at least 1,500 attempts.
The Bengals have him under contract through the 2029 season.
So even though four first-round picks would give Cincinnati years of premium draft capital, there’s no guarantee another quarterback could replace Burrow’s aptitude quickly.
Bengals Already Rejected a 4-Pick Offer for Burrow
The Dolphins’ reported offer gives ESPN’s exercise more weight than a normal hypothetical.
Miami held three first-round picks in 2020 and two more in 2021. According to ESPN, the team offered four of them for the opportunity to draft Burrow.
The Bengals declined to engage in serious discussions, and that decision changed the direction of the franchise.
Burrow helped Cincinnati end a 31-year postseason victory drought during the 2021 season.
The Bengals then reached Super Bowl LVI and returned to the AFC Championship Game one year later.
The value of the rejected picks is impossible to measure without knowing which selections Miami would have sent.
Nonetheless, several premium choices can strengthen a roster without carrying the necessity of an established franchise quarterback.
Cincinnati has already lived through the decision ESPN’s valuation presents, and they would have even less reason to reverse that choice after seeing what he became.
Barnwell’s figure may represent a fair return on paper, though a team would have to offer a historic package, and Cincinnati would have to figure out if life without Burrow offers a better path forward.
Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow Receives Enormous NFL Trade Valuation