While the Dallas Cowboys moving up 1 spot in the 1st round of the 2026 NFL draft to take Ohio State safety Caleb Downs at No. 11 overall didn’t really surprise anyone, the opposite can be said of their other 1st-round pick.
That’s because there just weren’t a lot of people who had the Cowboys taking UCF edge rusher Malachi Lawrence at No. 23 overall on their draft Bingo cards.
That doesn’t mean Lawrence, 6-foot-4 and 252 pounds, wasn’t the right pick. He’s not just a high upside physical specimen who ran a 4.52-second 40-yard dash at the NFL scouting combine, he racked up 27.5 TFL and 19.5 sacks over his last 3 seasons of college football.
Lawrence becoming a breakout star for the Cowboys in 2026 would be a gift for a franchise that has been largely devoid of production at the position since trading away Micah Parsons before the 2025 season, and ESPN’s Mike Clay predicts Lawrence will finish 2nd among NFL rookies with 5.7 sacks in 2026.
ESPN has New York Jets edge rusher and No. 2 overall pick David Bailey leading the way at 7.6 sacks.
‘Below Average’ Sack Totals in Recent Rookie Classes
In recent years, rookie edge rushers haven’t been performing at a very high clip.
“Rookies are averaging 106.0 sacks per season over the past decade, but the past two seasons (84.5 in 2024 and 100.0 in 2025) have been far below that average,” Clay wrote. “James Pearce Jr. led the way with 10.5 sacks last season, but no other rookie had more than 5.5, and only two others reached 5.0 (Jalon Walker and Nic Scourton). Micah Parsons’ 13.0 sacks in 2021 was the most by a rookie over the past decade, and only five other freshmen (including Pearce) reached double-digits. Four of the five were first-rounders. (Maxx Crosby was a fourth-rounder in 2019.) That’s especially relevant considering that five edge rushers were drafted in the first round this year (all listed above) and is the reason why none of them is projected to clear 7.6 sacks. In fact, each sack projection above would rank in the top 25 among first-round picks over the past five years. All five edge rushers will likely be busy, but let’s keep statistical expectations in check.”
Cowboys Swapped Draft Spots With Eagles
The Cowboys shook up the 1st round of the NFL draft by trading the No. 20 overall pick to perhaps their most hated rival, swapping places with the Philadelphia Eagles in the 1st round.
In exchange for the No. 20 overall pick and a 7th round pick, the Cowboys received the No. 23 overall pick, No. 114 overall pick, and No. 137 overall pick.
The Eagles selected USC wide receiver and Biletnikoff Award winner Makai Lemon at No. 20 overall, with the Cowboys taking Lawrence at No. 23 overall.
Lawrence Was Surprise 1st Round Selection
NFL draft analyst Lance Zierlein projected Lawrence as a 2nd-round pick.
“An NFL-caliber edge rusher with prototypical size and length, Lawrence moves with the suddenness of a smaller player,” Zierlein wrote. “Explosive get-off and a deep bag of moves/counters fuel his pocket disruption. He can win inside or outside but his speed-to-power conversion is average. His hands are subtle but skilled to quickly unlock openings and his secondary rush. He closes with burst and has the motor to hound scrambling quarterbacks … Lawrence is an ascending prospect with rush polish and pro traits that should be enticing for pressure-hungry defenses.”
Cowboys 1st Round Pick Malachi Lawrence Gets ‘Below Average’ Sack Prediction