Getty Packers head coach Matt LaFleur speaks with general manager Brian Gutekunst during an OTA practice session at Don Hutson Center on May 31, 2023 in Ashwaubenon, Wisconsin.
The Green Bay Packers made another first-round investment in their defense during the 2023 NFL draft, using the No. 13 overall selection on Iowa pass rusher Lukas Van Ness to fortify a group that struggled for them last season. At least one analyst is skeptical, though, about Van Ness’ ability to make an instant impact.
In a July 10 article, Bleacher Report’s Alex Ballentine made predictions for every NFL team’s “biggest bust” for the 2023 season and honed in on the first-round Van Ness as the most likely candidate for the Packers, calling back to how the team approached 2022 first-rounder Devonte Wyatt’s rookie season from a developmental perspective.
“While Wyatt was expected to be an impact player in Year 1, he never quite got there,” Ballentine wrote. “He had just 15 tackles, 1.5 sacks and played 23 percent of the defensive snaps. Those numbers should all go up this season, but the rookie season was definitely under expectations. There’s a lot of reason to believe Van Ness could follow a similar arc.”
Van Ness might have been the highest-profile addition the Packers made to their roster during the 2023 offseason, but he is joining an outside linebacker room that already has two clear starters in Preston Smith and Rashan Gary. Green Bay also re-signed veteran Justin Hollins and welcomes back 2022 fifth-rounder Kingsley Enagbare after both played valuable reps last season, further complicating Van Ness’ path to playing time.
Ballentine also argued that Van Ness has “a lot of refinement he needs to do to build his pass-rushing repertoire” after not being a starter for Iowa’s defense in his final season.
“In college, [Van Ness] got away with dominating because of his length and strength,” Ballentine added. “Those won’t be enough to find success early in the NFL. Van Ness will have a rotational role but the bulk of the Packers pass rush is going to come from Rashan Gary and Preston Smith.”
Packers’ Current Front-Office Regime Has Not Rushed to Throw 1st-Round Selections into Starting Roles
“Biggest bust” is a harsh term to use in a prediction for a rookie who has not yet had the opportunity to show what he can do in a live NFL game, but there is evidence to support the argument that Van Ness won’t be an immediate contributor for the Packers in 2023.
Brian Gutekunst has now selected eight first-round players in his six drafts as the Packers’ general manager and, more often than not, those players are not rushed into premium roles for the team. Jordan Love is the biggest example as a rare first-round quarterback who had to wait three seasons for the chance to be a full-time starter, but the pattern has persisted with some of Gutekunst’s other first-round selections as well.
Rashan Gary was a minor role player during his rookie season playing behind Za’Darius and Preston Smith at outside linebacker, seeing action on just 24% of defensive snaps. Wyatt played an even smaller percentage (23%) behind Dean Lowry and Jarran Reed — neither of whom comes close to the star power the Smiths brought — and only saw a meaningful uptick in his playing time in the final three games.
Now, there have been first-rounders in Gutekunst’s time that have jumped into the lineup right away. Darnell Savage, 2019’s other first-round pick alongside Gary, was a Day 1 starter alongside newly-signed veteran Adrian Amos. Jaire Alexander (2018), Eric Stokes (2021) and Quay Walker (2022) were also called upon as rookie starters.
Perhaps, the Packers find that defensive linemen and pass rushers need more time to develop than defensive backs and inside linebackers. Or maybe they have just been in situations previously where the veteran talent is deserving of a starting opportunity while the rookie develops behind the scenes. Either way, Van Ness may have trouble cracking the rotation in a meaningful way behind Gary, Smith, Hollins and Enagbare.
Lukas Van Ness Could Get Early Work for Packers Depending on Rashan Gary’s Injury Return Timeline
GettyRashan Gary’s status for training camp is currently up in the air as he continues to recover from an ACL tear.
Even though it seems unlikely at this point, there are a few things working in Van Ness’ favor that could cause him to enter the spotlight earlier than expected for the Packers.
For starters, the Packers do not seem sure just yet whether Gary will be available to play in Week 1’s opener against the Chicago Bears. Gary tore his ACL on November 6 last season and spent all of spring workouts rehabbing from the injury. When asked on June 14 when he thought he could return, Gary simply said, “I’ll be ready when I’ll be ready.”
Should Gary turn out to miss one or a few games to start the season, Van Ness could see his name bumped up the depth chart, potentially even as a starter if his camp goes well.
Van Ness is also a player who played behind inside and outside of the defensive line during his time with the Hawkeyes. The Packers have some good interior personnel with star Kenny Clark, T.J. Slaton and Wyatt, but they could potentially add Van Ness to that rotation, too, as his power moves are already catching the attention of Clark.
“He has a lot of power to his game [and] I think him playing inside in college really helped him out with that,” Clark said of Van Ness on May 23 during OTAs. “He’s a really good athlete and he can get around the edge. But his power game is going going to be good for him. I believe his speed-to-power and all that kind of stuff — once he starts, unlocking those tools and starts understanding it, he’s going to be a problem.”