The Green Bay Packers pretty much know for a fact that they are set to lose certain free agents over the coming week.
Malik Willis, Rasheed Walker, Romeo Doubs and Quay Walker are all seemingly poised to sign elsewhere over the next few days.
Whilst all of them have played key roles for the organization over the past few years – even if it has only been in relief duty in the case of Willis – the Packers will be comforted by the fact that they are set to receive multiple high compensatory picks from their departures, conditional upon them not signing similarly priced free agents from elsewhere during this period.
And given the fact that the Packers are nearly $7 million over the cap limit, that eventuality is unlikely to materialize.
Green Bay Could Lose a Compensatory Third Round Pick
However, Green Bay got some unfortunate updates about the salary projections for what was previously looking to be their highest-priced free agent, Willis. NFL insider Jordan Schultz reported on February 25 that the 26-year old was set to receive no less than $30 million a year.
Yet, according to mock offers put forward by ESPN’s team reporters, Willis could be in for a substantially smaller deal.
And this could end up impacting the Packers, as it could take his likely compensatory pick round from a third to a fourth rounder, which would be a blow for the team that will already be without their first round pick in 2027 due to the Micah Parsons trade.
“Cardinals reporter Josh Weinfuss’ offer: Two years, $33 million. The deal includes a $19 million signing bonus.” ESPN wrote on Wednesday.
“Willis wouldn’t be the long-term answer for the Cardinals, so the risk is overpaying him for a season in which they don’t exactly know what they’re getting. Paying him in excess of $25 million per year would be a massive risk, which is why I’m offering less here.” Weinfuss stated.
And Minnesota Vikings reporter Kevin Seifert, did not produce a much bigger offer than Weinfuss.
“Vikings reporter Kevin Seifert’s offer: One year, $20 million (fully guaranteed).”
Although Seifert believes that Willis will actually get offers in excess of this amount, he thinks it could end up being the best choice for the former Liberty man’s future.
“He’ll certainly get better financial offers. But the Vikings would be offering him one season to throw to wide receiver Justin Jefferson and play in coach Kevin O’Connell’s downfield passing offense.” Seifert maintains. “For someone with only 155 career attempts, Willis could produce the type of season that would make him a very rich man in 2027.”
Malik Willis’ Deal Could Resemble Justin Fields’
Indeed, Rich Cimini of the New York Jets produces an almost identical offer to Seifert’s, and one that will look very familiar to both Jets and NFL fans across the league.
“Jets reporter Rich Cimini’s offer: Two years, $40 million ($30 million guaranteed).”
“This is the Justin Fields contract…It’s fair value for an unproven player with upside (20th among QBs in average annual value), yet it protects the Jets if Willis fails to meet expectations in 2026.” Cimini writes.
The numbers that the ESPN reporters predict could have Willis right on the boundary: last year, Dan Moore Jr.’s $20.5 million per year deal netted the Steelers a third rounder, whilst Aaron Banks‘ $19.25 million per year only garnered a fourth rounder for San Francisco.
And in 2026, where multiple players could be seeing themselves get paid in the $20 million + per year region; Tyler Linderbaum, Alec Pierce, Trey Hendrickson – perhaps even guard David Edwards – Willis getting the kind of deal as projected above could have Green Bay just miss out on that elusive third round compensatory pick.
Packers Get Bad News on Top Free Agent’s Contract Projection