There are already a lot of questions for Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft as he is coming back from an ACL injury. However, ESPN Fantasy Football Writer Mike Clay is adding another concern to the list. Clay notes that Kraft has scored more touchdowns than expected in each of the past two seasons. Players who get that fortunate near the end zone tend to see a drop in that third season.
I looked at the other largest 2-year stretches of TD luck since 2012 and what happened the following season. It’s clear that regression to the mean remains strong.
Kraft had 13 touchdowns over the past two seasons, but according to Clay, he was expected to have 4.6 based on his usage. He scored 8.4 more touchdowns than expected, which is one of the biggest differences Clay has seen at tight end.
ESPN Fantasy Writer Projects Major Drop-Off For Green Bay Packers Tight End
GettyPackers Tucker Kraft
Since 2012, there have been eight instances of a tight end outproducing expectations by more than 7 touchdowns over two years. Interestingly enough, Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, and George Kittle appear on the list twice.
In 2012-13, Graham had 8.7 more touchdowns than expected. In 2014, he had 1.1 more than expected. Then, in 2015, he had 1.2 fewer than expected. Kittle had 2.5 more touchdowns than expected the year after he had 7.3 more than expected over two years. The following year, he was 1.1 touchdowns over expectation.
Julius Thomas had 12.5 more touchdowns than expected from 2013-14, but had 0.5 more than expected the following year. The next time he had 1.2 more than expected.
Rob Gronkowski had 7.3 more touchdowns than expected from 2014-15. Then, in 2016, he had 0.2 more than expected. Travis Kelce had seven more touchdowns than expected from 2020-21. Then, he dropped to 0.9 more than expected.
So, it is less about the players dropping off and being duds and more about them coming back down to reality and meeting expectations.
The group averaged 10.6 touchdowns per year during their outlier runs. Then, they averaged 6.3 touchdowns per year in the following season. That goes from an average of 4.1 more than expected to 0.8 more than expected. Kraft could still score more than expected, and most tight ends do. However, it will not be significantly more, which is what has been happening.
Packers Have a Plan for Tucker Kraft
Tucker Kraft is most often compared to George Kittle, so it is good to see Kittle on the list twice. This shows that Kraft can continue to outshoot expectations, even if there is a small drop-off every once in a while.
Kittle and Kraft are similar in that both are blockers first. That is why their expected touchdowns are lower than most. They also catch a lot of dump-offs near the line of scrimmage, and they have more yards after the catch than a typical tight end. Again, this leads to them producing more than expected.
Lastly, Kittle is in a highly functioning offense led by Kyle Shanahan. Kraft is led by Matt LaFleur at playcaller. LaFleur happened to come up the coaching ranks with Shanahan.
So, the run that Kraft is on should be compared favorably to Kittle. That means consistently outperforming expectations, even if it is only one or two more, and not four or more than expected.
ESPN Sr. Writer Projects Major Drop-Off for Packers Star in 2026