The Indianapolis Colts know what it looks like to play well with their current roster construction.
Just last season, they got off to a rapid-fire 8-2 start that included incredible offensive efficiency with Daniel Jones at the helm.
Eventually, injuries derailed their season, and the biggest key to any successful year in the NFL is avoiding painful absences for key players.
If the Colts can do that, they’ll have a chance to be quite competitive.
ESPN released its big NFL season preview ahead of Week 1, though, and Colts fans may not love what they see in there as far as expectations for Indianapolis.
They rank the Colts No. 19 in the NFL out of the league’s 32 teams, and the projections that go along with that leave some room to be desired.
Colts Projected Record
As part of its preview package, ESPN projected the Colts’ win total for the 2026 NFL season.
ESPN projects the Colts to win 8.4 games, which of course can’t actually happen, but we can interpret that to mean either 8 or 9 wins.
That would give Indy either an 8-9 or 9-8 record. The 9-8 might be just enough to squeeze into the wild card in some seasons, while 8-9 almost certainly wouldn’t be good enough. And unless you’re in the NFC South, 9-8 rarely would win a division title.
ESPN does give percentage chances for those things, too. They’ve given the Colts a 39.2% chance to make the playoffs, which includes a 22.0% chance to win the division.
It feels like the statistics could be punishing the Colts for closing out last season with the likes of Philip Rivers and Anthony Richardson at quarterback. They certainly don’t seem to believe in the way Indy started last season.
The Colts even have the seventh-easiest strength of schedule in football. If they stay healthy, it seems like they should win a lot of football games.
Strengths and Concerns
ESPN lists the Colts’ biggest strength as their skill players.
That includes the likes of running back Jonathan Taylor and tight end Tyler Warren.
The wide receiver group lost Michael Pittman but still has Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and Keenan Allen.
Jones is “bringing it all together as a distributor,” ESPN’s Stephen Holder writes as part of the preview package.
That group is a large reason why the Colts were so potent early last season.
Holder then lists the Colts’ biggest concern as their pass rush, where they lost three key contributors from last season.
Really, though, this season comes down to how well Jones plays and how healthy the Colts are.
If they hit some of those same bumps in the road, a record around .500 makes sense. But if they stay healthier, that promising start to the 2025 season could carry over into the 2026 campaign.
Colts’ Projected Record From ESPN Depends on Schedule Strength, Injuries