The Indianapolis Colts start their 2026 NFL season this weekend.
It’s a chance to rebound from a tough finish to the last campaign, and a chance to prove that this Colts team is still one to be reckoned with.
Despite the high hopes in Indy, though, it’s not going to be an easy first game. They take on the Baltimore Ravens, who have a new head coach but are still led by two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson.
The game will be played in Indianapolis, but it looks like Baltimore will come to town as about three-point favorites.
And there are certainly some Colts doubters. ESPN’s predictions for the game show that.
Colts-Ravens Predictions
In ESPN’s weekly preview, they have three experts predict the final score of each game: Eric Moody, Pam Maldonado and Seth Walder.
For Colts-Ravens, they all project a Baltimore win.
Walder goes with a 21-14 Ravens victory as his prediction.
Moody has the Ravens winning 30-20.
Maldonado has it as a Baltimore 27-21 triumph.
In all three cases, the Ravens would cover the spread, too.
“The Colts are 3-14-1 ATS (against the spread) in Week 1 since 2008,” Maldonado writes. “The Colts’ defense was already one of the league’s worst at preventing opponents from moving the ball, and now it has to deal with Jackson, plus an upgraded pass rush on the other side with edge Trey Hendrickson. Indianapolis has offensive upside, but Jones is returning from an Achilles injury.”
For what it’s worth, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) system projects that Baltimore would win this game 59.8% of the time, by an average of 2.4 points. So based on that, the projections are a bit bold to have the game decided by more like a touchdown than a field goal.
Problem Areas for Colts
The good news for the Colts is that Alec Pierce’s ankle injury appears to be healed up enough for him to be on the field in Week 1.
They also felt confident a while back that Daniel Jones’ 2025 injuries wouldn’t delay the start of his 2026 season, and that’s true, too.
The Colts’ chances here may be less about offense and more about defense. Indianapolis isn’t necessarily equipped to stop Baltimore’s offense.
Jackson’s dual-threat talents are well documented. Derrick Henry in the backfield with him is still a force.
And then you add in a guy like Zay Flowers, who does things the Colts struggle to stop.
“Zay Flowers is dangerous from both the slot and the outside, and the Colts gave up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to WRs last season,” Moody writes. “Doyle is incorporating more under-center formations and play-action to maximize Jackson and Flowers, which could lead to more chunk plays.”
The Colts will have to figure out how to handle a zone-heavy defensive approach by the Ravens against their offense — Walder predicts it’ll lead to a bunch of catches for Jonathan Taylor.
But really, if Indy doesn’t slow Baltimore’s offense, ESPN’s predictions may prove correct.
Colts-Ravens Predictions: ESPN Experts Project Same Outcome in Week 1