The Colts have a Daniel Jones problem and no it’s not his contract, it’s far worse…
After starting 7-1 with Daniel Jones playing the most efficient football of his career and Shane Steichen coaching one of the league’s top offenses, the Indianapolis Colts looked like they were supposed to be running away with the AFC South.
However, the AFC South is now wide open again because the Colts’ passing attack has collapsed.
Across the last three weeks, Daniel Jones has posted three of his four worst EPA-per-dropback performances of the season, dropping from a top-10 efficiency profile to one of the league’s least effective passers over that span.
His early season pressure-to-sack rate fell below 10% through eight weeks after hovering around 20% in New York, but that has also snapped back to Giants-era levels.
Sure the Colts are 8-3 and still on top of the AFC South. But the Jaguars (7-4) and Texans (6-5) have closed the gap, and the underlying numbers show a team trending sharply in the wrong direction.
The Trust Gap Growing Between Jones and Steichen
GettyColts QB Daniel Jones
The Colts have now abandoned their early-season blueprint entirely. In Week 12, they kept seven-plus blockers on 34.4% of dropbacks, the highest single-game rate in the NFL this year.
And the more players you keep in, the fewer you send out. So Indy’s once-expansive offense where Jones could pick his favorite matchup between Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Michael Pittman Jr., and Tyler Warren, has shrunk into a three-option shell. The depth of the receiver room no longer matters when half of it is pass-protecting.
The more Daniel Jones fears pressure, the more Steichen fears Jones. That’s the dynamic now defining Indianapolis football.
Steichen arrived as one of the NFL’s most aggressive fourth-down coaches. He has never been shy about trusting his offense in high-leverage moments. But against the Chiefs (arguably the last team you can beat by playing conservatively) Steichen didn’t go for a single fourth down, instead opting for punts and field goals.
That’s the behavior of a staff that’s lost confidence in its quarterback. And Jones’ play reinforces that. Against Kansas City, he didn’t attempt a single deep pass (the first time that’s happened all season) even though the Chiefs played with their safeties a league-low depth of 9.6 yards.
The Colts have spent years constructing an elite receiver room. They traded and drafted aggressively. They rebuilt the offensive line. They invested heavily in the passing game. Yet the current version of the offense asks those same receivers to block so Jones can dump the ball underneath.
Indy Needs to Turn It Around… And Fast
GettyColts QB Daniel Jones
And that’s how a 7-1 team opens the door for challengers.
Jacksonville is winning close games. Houston has the best defense in the division (and maybe the entire NFL). Both play Indianapolis twice.
If Daniel Jones stabilizes, the Colts can reclaim the form that made them one of football’s biggest surprises through eight weeks. But if the pressure issues continue and if Steichen keeps calling games like a coach protecting a liability, Indianapolis could go from early-season contender to losing the AFC South and missing the playoffs entirely.
The problem is serious. And no one can ignore it anymore.
The Colts Have a Daniel Jones Problem No One Can Ignore Anymore