The Kansas City Chiefs aren’t the betting favorites to win Super Bowl LXI, but one prominent NFL analyst expects Patrick Mahomes to lead them right back to the top of the AFC.
“First Things First” co-host Nick Wright picked the Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl during the show’s 2026 season predictions, setting up another championship matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Kansas City enters the season at 15-1 to win Super Bowl LXI, behind the Los Angeles Rams (+500), Buffalo Bills (10-1), Baltimore Ravens (11-1) and defending champion Seattle Seahawks (12-1), according to Yahoo Sports.
Wright, however, believes Mahomes and the Chiefs will make another deep postseason run after their difficult 2025 campaign.
Nick Wright Predicts Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl Rematch
The five “First Things First” co-hosts revealed their Super Bowl picks during the show’s Sept. 4 episode, with Wright predicting Kansas City will first have to get through Baltimore.
“I have the Ravens hosting the Chiefs in the AFC, much like they did two years ago,” Wright said. “In the NFC, I have the Seahawks hosting the Eagles.”
Wright ultimately picked Kansas City and Philadelphia to advance, creating another Super Bowl matchup between the teams after they faced each other in Super Bowls LVII and LIX.
This time, Wright predicted a Kansas City victory.
“All they’ve done is gone to five of the last seven Super Bowls, seven of the last eight AFC Championships. They’re back atop the mountain,” Wright said of the Chiefs. “Philadelphia, remember, I believe in you.”
Wright’s prediction comes as Kansas City prepares to open its season against the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium on Sept. 14.
That game could also mark Mahomes’ return to regular-season action after a lengthy rehabilitation.
Patrick Mahomes Eyes Week 1 Return After Major Knee Injury
Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee against the Los Angeles Chargers on Dec. 14, ending his 2025 season.
He underwent surgery two days later and immediately began working toward an aggressive timeline that would have him ready for the start of the 2026 season.
Mahomes has participated throughout the Chiefs’ offseason program, including OTAs, minicamp and training camp. The three-time Super Bowl MVP said his goal has remained the same since undergoing surgery.
“This has always been the plan. Get me ready for training camp, get all the reps in training camp. Prepare your body so that when you get to week one, you’re ready to play the game,” Mahomes told reporters.
Mahomes was initially given a nine-month recovery timeline. Sept. 16 will mark exactly nine months since his surgery, two days after Kansas City’s season opener.
“This has always been the plan. From the day I got the surgery, as quick as I did, to hopefully the first game of the year, the plan will go accordingly, and I’ll be able to go out there and be myself,” Mahomes said.
ESPN Insider Makes Another Big Patrick Mahomes Prediction
Wright isn’t the only analyst expecting a major comeback from Mahomes.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler picked Mahomes to win the 2026 Comeback Player of the Year award, pointing to his rehabilitation and the changes Kansas City made around him.
“This one is set up for Mahomes like a well-blocked bubble screen,” Fowler wrote. “The three-time Super Bowl MVP has crushed his rehab from a torn ACL and PCL. He’s poised to play in Week 1. The offense should be better overall, with a Walker-led running game and a healthier receiving corps. And, perhaps for the first time in his career, a hint of doubt hovers over Mahomes and his place in the quarterback pantheon. He has had multiple down years (by his standards) statistically.”
Mahomes will also reunite with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy in 2026. Before Bieniemy’s departure, Mahomes routinely surpassed 4,000 passing yards and remained a threat to reach 40 touchdowns.
The Chiefs will have Kenneth Walker in the running game, while Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy give Mahomes options at wide receiver.
Chiefs Get Bold Super Bowl Prediction Ahead of Patrick Mahomes’ Long-Awaited Return