Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has said for months that he will be ready to play in Week 1, and his performance through training camp proved that.
But fans confident that the former two-time MVP taking the field in the season opener won’t be able to put their money on it. The New York Post reported that a prediction market with close ties to the NFL pulled the market on whether Mahomes will play, part of a larger trend.
Patrick Mahomes Week 1 Availability Off the Market
As the report noted, the prediction market Polymarket had a self-certified market titled, “Will Patrick Mahomes participate in the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 1 regular-season game?” But it recently disappeared, the New York Post reported.
“A Polymarket source told ESPN that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission asked it and other prediction-market operators to remove contracts involving NFL players’ availability,” the report noted.
While there is no doubt on whether Mahomes will start in Week 1 — barring a new injury or development between now and then — the report added that the NFL is wary about the ability to use inside information to benefit on these markets.
“Although Mahomes has fully participated in training camp without limitations, the league considers the market injury-related because he is returning from a season-ending knee injury he suffered last year,” the report noted. “The concern is focused around those with inside access to Mahomes’ plans potentially trading on — or selling — information unavailable to the public.”
Patrick Mahomes Faces Lower Expectations for 2026
Mahomes has been consistently confident in his ability to return from the season-ending knee injury, but not all are so optimistic. The Chiefs quarterback dropped to his lowest ranking on NFL.com’s “NFL Top 100,” a list voted on by players themselves.
Mahomes ranked No. 18, with the report noting that he faces uncertainty in the coming season.
“Statistically speaking, Mahomes had his worst season since becoming the Chiefs starter in 2018, which has translated to his lowest ranking amid his eighth season on the list,” the report noted. “However, the equity he’s amassed within the NFL is evident as he lands in the top 20.”
The ranking did note that Mahomes made up for some of the team’s passing struggles by increaing his rushing production last season.
“Before he was sidelined with a torn ACL, Mahomes had already rushed for career bests in yards, touchdowns and yards per game (30.1),” the report noted. “He also eclipsed 3,500 passing yards for an incredible eighth consecutive year and though his six QB wins were his lowest, it’s notable the Chiefs were 0-3 when he didn’t start, including losses to a pair of three-win squads.”
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Faces Interesting Week 1 Development