The Los Angeles Rams will either be a 7-10 team or produce a 12-5 mark in 2021. At least, that’s what one national analytics website believes.
Pro Football Focus unveiled its latest work on Wednesday: The Best-and-Worst Case Scenarios involving each NFC team including the heavily hyped Rams. Ben Linsey of PFF took the lead on putting together the predictions for if things go bad or if things go to plan for the Rams. Linsey wrote:
“With the help of a large number of simulations of the 2021 season, PFF can attempt to capture some of that variance by highlighting best- and worst-case scenarios for all 16 NFC teams. Those scenarios are accompanied by theoretical avenues to those records based on some of the questions surrounding each team this offseason. The potential win-loss records highlighted in this piece aren’t truly the extremes. Rather, they’re the 10th- and 90th-percentile outcomes, meaning that 80% of that team’s simulation results fall somewhere between those two records. Inevitably, there will be teams that fall outside these parameters in 2021.”
Here’s what Linsey and PFF predicted on both sides:
Worst Case Scenario Involves Defensive Struggles
Linsey and PFF pointed to defensive regression as a possibility if the 7-10 mark happens.
The Rams are transitioning to Raheem Morris as defensive coordinator, who will take over the unit that predecessor Brandon Staley developed into the No. 1 defense in 2020. Among the highlights Staley leaves for Morris: Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey being selected for the Pro Bowl, Leonard Floyd producing a career-best mark in sacks, Sebastian Joseph-Day seeing his tackle numbers go up and lastly, Darious Williams leading the team and producing a career-high in interceptions.
Yet, the loss of Staley to the L.A. Chargers, along with the departures of two savvy veterans in the secondary, give Linsey and PFF this first reasoning behind the worst case scenario prediction:
“Defensive regression comes for Los Angeles. With Brandon Staley no longer leading the unit, the losses of players such as Troy Hill (73.1 coverage grade in 2020) and John Johnson III (86.6 coverage grade in 2020) in the secondary are tough to overcome.”
If you go back into time, Morris prefers to operate with four down linemen and drop the middle linebacker into coverage in his years running the “Tampa-2.” His defensive schemes counted on the back seven to cover a certain area of the field and allow the front four to penetrate through the line. Although, as seen here in this clip versus the Carolina Panthers last year, Morris’s scheme can cause confusion and takeaways. If you look closely at the weakside defensive end, he starts by rushing but then drops back, because it turns out the SAM (strongside) linebacker is the one rushing with the rest of the defensive line:
Like Morris, Staley ran a two-high safety look with the Rams. However, his schemes were more exotic with Staley often employing between three to five defenders across the line.
The other worst case scenario? Prized free agent acquisition Matthew Stafford under performs behind center.
Best Case Scenario Involves Offensive Explosion
Stafford benefitting from the change of scenery, and having more than two weapons to choose from, leads to the best case scenario for the Rams, Linsey writes.
Linsey pointed out that Stafford’s percentage in making throws under pressure (73rd percentile by PFF) was higher than Goff’s 14th percentile mark in that category. Linsey adds “A combination of DeSean Jackson and Tutu Atwell add the field-stretching component that Los Angeles was missing last season, as well. That offensive improvement is enough to battle off potential defensive regression, pushing the Rams toward the top of a competitive NFC West.”
Rams Twitter showed what Stafford can be capable of, putting together this highlight reel from his final year in Detroit.
Best of Matthew Stafford from the 2020 season!
In conclusion, PFF clearly predicts between 7-12 wins for the Rams. Talent wise, though, the Rams looks like they’re capable of pushing past 12 victories.
PFF Reveals Best & Worst Case Scenarios Involving the Rams