The New England Patriots’ road to the Super Bowl looked anything but easy on Sunday, as second-year quarterback Drake Maye helped secure an AFC Championship win in heavy snow and brutal conditions in Denver, leaning on his legs and situational poise when his passing game faltered.
When the Patriots took the field behind MVP candidate quarterback Drake Maye to face the top-seeded Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship game on Sunday, they were looking to complete what a wide array of media voices and fans call the easiest path to a Super Bowl in NFL history.
Why are they saying that when, measured by any major defensive statistic, the Patriots have actually faced the most difficult road in the 60-year Super Bowl era? What is the truth about the Patriots’ unlikely run to the AFC title game, and possibly the 12th Super Bowl appearance in franchise history?
The truth is, no quarterback in NFL history has faced three of the five toughest NFL defenses in the playoffs, ranked by total defense, and beaten all three. If the Patriots win on Sunday, Drake Maye will become the first.
In fact, should the Patriots defeat the Broncos on Sunday, they will become only the sixth team in NFL history to bounce back from a season of five wins or fewer the previous season to reach the Super Bowl, according to ESPN Insights. The Patriots finished 4-13 in 2024 — and 4-13 in 2023 as well.
The last team to get to the NFL’s biggest game after winning five or fewer games the year before was also the Patriots — 24 years ago.
Ex-Patriots QB Among Loudest Critics
One of the loudest voices among 2025 Patriots skeptics has been Cam Newton, a former Patriots quarterback himself who reached the Super Bowl in the 2015 season with the Carolina Panthers, the team that made him the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2011, out of Auburn.
On the Wednesday edition of his podcast, Newton called the Patriots’ path to a possible Super Bowl “a joke,” declaring, “The New England Patriots have had the easiest road to the Super Bowl in NFL history.”
He claimed that the Patriots’ Wild Card Round opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, who placed second in the AFC West at 11-6, were a “bottom-tier team,” and that in the Divisional Round, the 11-6 Houston Texans “were not the best version of that team.”
One Commentator Defends Patriots
At least one NFL expert, Kay Adams of the daily Up & Adams cable TV program, sees the Patriots differently. In fact, Adams said on her Thursday broadcast, “If Drake and the Patriots win this game and make it to the Super Bowl, Drake has navigated one of the toughest paths a quarterback has ever had to navigate from a defensive standpoint. Ever. No hyperbole.”
What is Adams referring to?
Simply put, if the Patriots succeed in defeating the Broncos in Denver, Maye will have squared off against three of the top eight defenses measured by points allowed and Expected Points Added in the NFL. No quarterback in NFL history has ever done that in the playoffs and beaten all three.
In terms of points per game allowed, the Texans averaged 16.7, best in the NFL. The Patriots scored 21 offensive points (plus seven by the defense) to win 28-16.
The Chargers ranked eighth, allowing 19.8 points per game. The Patriots scored just 16, but allowed only three in the victory.
Finally, the Broncos rank fourth, allowing 18.3 points per game.
Advanced Metric Also Shows Difficulty of Patriots Path
Measured by the advanced metric of Expected Points Added, which is designed to give a truer picture of the value of each play on defense and offense, the Texans still rank as the toughest defense in the league with a total EPA of -130.9. In other words, the Texans’ defense prevented almost 131 points that opponents would have otherwise scored.
The Broncos ranked seventh with -92.09, and the Chargers eighth at -84.28.
If Maye and the Patriots get to the Super Bowl, they will face either the Seattle Seahawks or Los Angeles Rams. The Seahawks have the second-ranked defense as measured by EPA (-129.62). The Rams rank 10th (-66.60).
Newton and other critics have claimed that the Patriots have been lucky, facing teams depleted by injuries, but that is frequently the case for NFL playoff teams. Newton’s 2015 Super Bowl team, for example, started the playoffs with a bye week, the easiest path of all.
After that, Newton faced the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals, “a team with an injured star, and then met a quarterback who threw four interceptions,” as NESN.com writer Evan Cormier noted.
Patriots Show Drake Maye’s “Easy” Super Bowl Path Was a Myth