Prediction markets now give New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel only a 76% chance of coaching the team in Week 1, a stunning fall from the certainty around him after leading the Patriots to the 12th Super Bowl in franchise history in just his first year at the helm. But then the Dianna Russini scandal upended his offseason.
“A few weeks ago, Vrabel would have been priced at 95 cents or higher, and we’d all be focused on whether A.J. Brown would be heading to Gillette Stadium,” wrote Justin Colombo, sports betting analyst for The Action Network. “The fact that Vrabel is now trading below 80 cents reflects one of the stranger and more turbulent offseasons any NFL coach has ever navigated.”
Vrabel’s previous near-zero chance of being fired or resigning reflected his extraordinary debut season that rescued a franchise coming off back-to-back 4-13 finishes. Vrabel went 14-3 in the regular season, earned AP NFL Coach of the Year honors, and guided New England to the Super Bowl before a 29-13 loss in the championship game to the Seattle Seahawks.
Mike Vrabel Week 1 Odds Drop
The Kalshi market poses a yes-or-no question for each potential candidate: Who coaches New England in Week 1? Vrabel leads at 76%. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who rejoined the Patriots last season after a tumultuous head coaching run with the Las Vegas Raiders and built a strong rapport with quarterback Drake Maye, sits at 19%. Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin, a perpetual rumored target for marquee openings, is listed at 6%.
But even with the market anticipating a 24% chance that Vrabel doesn’t make it to September, his firing seems unlikely, according to Action Network‘s Colombo.
“The market is essentially saying: If Vrabel goes, McDaniels is the most likely stopgap or successor, but the Patriots’ best outcome by far is Vrabel staying,” the analyst wrote, adding that even at the current odds, with Vrabel’s track record, he “probably doesn’t clear the bar for dismissal.”
The scandal exploded into public view April 7 when the New York Post Page Six published photos of Vrabel and then-The Athletic reporter Dianna Russini at an adults-only resort in Sedona, Arizona. Both are married, but not to each other. Vrabel initially waved off speculation that there was anything inappropriate going on in the photos as “laughable.” Russini described the photos as depicting “a completely innocent interaction” among a larger group.
The story, however, kept growing. Page Six published 2020 photographs of the pair at the Tribeca Tavern in New York City, and the developments have only continued from there.
Patriots Face NFL Schedule Release as Scandal Drags On
The NFL’s schedule release, expected in mid-May, may not let the story rest. Sports Illustrated senior reporter Albert Breer said on The Dan Patrick Show this week that the Vrabel saga has “crossed the Rubicon” into celebrity gossip territory and predicted it would surface in team schedule release videos. The Los Angeles Chargers, scheduled to host New England this season, are the acknowledged masters of the mockery video. Their past targets include Harrison Butker, Travis Kelce and Josh Allen.
“I would be shocked if they don’t go there,” one source told Front Office Sports reporter Michael McCarthy.
Will Patriots Fire Mike Vrabel? Odds Shift as Russini Scandal Drags On