There was no better surprise during the 2025 season than the New England Patriots. Rising from the basement, in head coach Mike Vrabel’s first season with the team, he took the Patriots to the Super Bowl and helped make quarterback Drake Maye an MVP candidate.
In all of that, there was a major criticism of the Patriots. The schedule. Admittedly, it was an easy one. By winning percentage, it was the easiest in the NFL a season ago. It was also the second easiest in terms of strength of record.
That won’t be the case in 2026. The Patriots long since knew it would be a tougher year for them. Now, several anonymous NFL execs have pointed to that as a major reason why New England may take a step in the wrong direction next season.
“It’s funny you’re asking me this, man, I was just looking at them,” one NFL executive said to Jason La Canfora. “Last in sacks allowed. (Drake) Maye gets hit 121 times, that’s the most. The left tackle isn’t a left tackle. I’m with you. The schedule is much tougher with them winning a division now. Put the Vrabel stuff aside, I think they’re in trouble. Didn’t like their redzone offense. They rely heavily on the run. The defense, bad in the redzone. They don’t have enough impact defensive linemen. Look at their sacks, plus pressures, plus QB hits, I’ve got them 31st in the league.”
Another general manager would add to that prediction. They explained that another major worry should be the generally improved AFC. With that, the path, even if the Patriots get to the postseason, will be much harder.
“There is nowhere for them to go but down,” a general manager told La Canfora. “Kansas City is going to be back. Baltimore should be better. Cincinnati is better. I don’t think New England got better.”
The New England Patriots are Preparing for a Tougher Strength of Schedule
GettyNew England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel
The NFL has yet to officially reveal its schedule for 2026. However, opponents are already on the record, which means that the New England Patriots know it’s going to be a tougher slate, at least on paper.
That’s by design in the NFL. The league wants top-tier matchups for the purposes of television, and it wants to create some amount of parity.
“I’m looking at it right here. At Jacksonville, at Seattle. Denver at home. What if that game is in December? You have to watch Drake Maye in the cold. It looked like in the playoffs there last year Josh (McDaniels) was telling him to hang in there for six more minutes so they could go to the Super Bowl,” an anonymous executive said.
“He didn’t look good playing in the elements. At the Chargers and at the Chiefs, that won’t be easy. You know Buffalo is going to be ready for them after what happened last year.”
The Patriots only have a few days left before they learn their exact fate. On Thursday, May 14th, the league will release the new schedule.
Patriots Got Updated Odds for the 2026 Super Bowl
GettyNew England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye
Regardless of how difficult the schedule is going to be for the Patriots, the goal is the same. It’s about getting back to and winning the Super Bowl.
Of course, the Patriots aren’t the only ones with those hefty goals. Plenty of teams believe they can win, and Vegas agrees. In the latest odds for the 2026 Super Bowl, DraftKings shared that the Patriots are +1600 to win the Super Bowl.
That’s tied for eighth for the best overall odds to win the Super Bowl, alongside the Los Angeles Chargers. At the top of the list is the Los Angeles Rams, who have the best odds to win it all at +800. From the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and the Kansas City Chiefs all have better odds. As such, Buffalo is also leading the Patriots in odds to win the AFC East.
Patriots Get Ominous Prediction from Executives Ahead of NFL Schedule Release