The New England Patriots have done enough to catapult themselves to the top of NFL playoff contention.
Still, the prediction markets are vary of giving New England credit it may deserve.
As of July 9, 11:04 a.m. Eastern time, Polymarket’s team postseason market had the Patriots at 43% to make the 2026-27 playoffs.
The Buffalo Bills led at 77%, followed by the Los Angeles Rams at 78%, Baltimore Ravens at 58%, Seattle Seahawks at 69% and Denver Broncos at 55%. Polymarket also had the Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars ahead of New England.
Kalshi was more optimistic, listing the Patriots at 61%, but still had the Bills at 78%, Rams at 80%, Seahawks at 70% and Los Angeles Chargers at 64%.
Why is New England chasing the teams with cleaner arguments to make the postseason?
They have Drake Maye, who already looks like the answer at quarterback. They have A.J. Brown, who gives the offense a true No. 1 receiver.
They have a roster that looks deeper and more believable than it did a year ago.
But perhaps a Maye slump is ahead.
Maybe Stefon Diggs mattered a great deal to his success, and Brown is aging out and no longer the same player. This argument seems like wishful thinking than a strong case, though.
Teams Ahead of Patriots Have Clearer Cases
Start in the division.
The Bills remain the first problem.
ESPN ranked Buffalo’s roster No. 4 entering the 2026 season, with New England at No. 7. That does not make the gap massive, but it helps explain why the market still sees the Bills as the AFC East standard.
The Rams have an even easier case.
ESPN ranked Los Angeles No. 1 in that same roster exercise, and CBS Sports reported the team traded for Myles Garrett, signed Matthew Stafford to a one-year extension worth $55 million in new money, added Jaylen Watson and drafted Ty Simpson in the first round. These moves contribute to an offseason that makes a high playoff number feel almost automatic.
Baltimore’s case is a bit different. The Ravens already have the best duel-threat QB in Lamar Jackson, and the team’s official site noted that Fox Sports ranked the signing of Trey Hendrickson as the second-biggest move of the offseason. Baltimore has an elite quarterback and a big pass rushing name solidified.
Seattle is priced like a team with a strong floor.
ESPN ranked the Seahawks No. 3, and Field Gulls’ summary of that ranking noted Seattle retained 21 of 22 starters from last season while allowing 17.2 points per game.
Patriots’ Number Is About the AFC Math
The Maye and Brown part is obvious.
Maye threw for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions last season. Brown’s arrival gives him a receiver who can win outside and pull coverage away from the rest of the offense.
The harder part is the conference.
Only seven teams per conference make the postseason, with four division winners and three wild cards. If Buffalo holds the AFC East, New England gets pushed into a wild-card fight with teams such as Baltimore, Denver, Los Angeles and Jacksonville.
Thus, it makes sense why the number can look low and still make sense.
The market is waiting to see whether they also have the week-to-week floor that separates a playoff favorite from a playoff hopeful.
Patriots Odds: New England’s Playoff Chances Surprisingly Low