The New England Patriots are favored to get back above .500 on Sunday, but the Week 5 betting board is sending a more cautious message about how comfortable that victory might be.
New England enters at 2-2, while the Las Vegas Raiders are 3-1 and have covered the spread in all four games.
The Patriots also head into the matchup without starting cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III, along with two more corners ruled out on the final injury report.
Patriots vs. Raiders Odds: FanDuel, Kalshi & Polymarket
FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds list the Patriots as 3.5-point home favorites at -114. Las Vegas is +3.5 at -106. New England is -194 on the moneyline, the Raiders are +162 and the total is 44.5, with the Over at -118 and Under at -104.
The traditional market favors New England outright, and the prediction markets agree.
Kalshi’s Patriots-Raiders market hand New England roughly a 62% chance to win, compared with 38% for Las Vegas, as of 12:26 a.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 11.
The more interesting number is the spread.
Kalshi prices the Patriots winning by more than 3.5 points at approximately 48%, essentially a coin flip. Its Over 45.5 contract sits around 49%.
Polymarket’s NFL board is slightly more bullish on New England straight up, pricing the Patriots around 64% and Las Vegas around 37%. New England -3.5 is around 50%, while Under 45.5 sits near 52%.
The message is consistent across the three boards that New England is expected to win, but there isn’t a ton of conviction that the Patriots create much separation.
Patriots Prediction: Secondary Injuries Make Spread Tricky
The hesitation makes sense after New England’s final injury report.
Gonzalez and Davis are out, along with Channing Canada and Karon Prunty. Charles Woods is questionable with a shoulder injury. That’s a tough way to waltz into a matchup with a productive Raiders passing game.
Kirk Cousins has 11 touchdown passes so far, tied for the NFL lead, while Las Vegas has covered three times as an underdog of at least 3.5 points.
Regardless, New England’s way forward is clear. Drake Maye is coming off a 269-yard, three-touchdown performance against Buffalo, demonstrating once again the Patriots have a quarterback capable of answering if this turns into a higher-scoring game.
The Patriots’ pass rush becomes the pressure valve.
If New England can speed Cousins up before the reshuffled secondary has to hold coverage, the favorite should survive. If Cousins has time, laying 3.5 becomes much more uncomfortable.
A 62% to 64% chance of a Patriots win fits the matchup. A near-50/50 price on New England covering 3.5 reflects the danger created by its personnel losses at corner.
Take the Patriots to win a close one, as Las Vegas stays inside the number.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Raiders 24.
Pick: Raiders +3.5; Over 44.5.
Patriots vs. Raiders Odds: FanDuel, Kalshi, Polymarket and Prediction