The New Orleans Saints feel like an NFL team on the rise.
The question, entering Week 1 of this new season, is whether that will be enough for them to push toward the playoffs.
They’re the kind of team that feels more like a deep sleeper and less like a sure thing entering the 2026 campaign.
Yes, they have a promising second-year quarterback, Tyler Shough, who did a lot of good things as a rookie.
Yes, they have a new star, having signed Travis Etienne in free agency from the Jacksonville Jaguars to be a multi-faceted running back.
Yes, they even brought back their most important on-field leader, defensive lineman Cameron Jordan, after some concerns that he might retire.
Still, though, there are doubts about the Saints’ abilities to put it all together this season.
For example, in ESPN’s new preview of the season ahead, they rank the Saints as the No. 25 team in the NFL out of the league’s 32 teams. While potentially fair, it also doesn’t display a whole lot of optimism.
There is plenty of interesting information in that preview, though, and we’ll break down some more of it here.
Saints’ Playoff Chances
As part of the preview package, ESPN projects each team’s chances to make the playoffs.
They give the Saints a 25.7% chance to make the postseason, included in which is a 20.7% chance to win the NFC South Division.
Essentially, ESPN believes that by far the Saints’ best path to the playoffs is to win their relatively weak division.
The publication goes on to project the Saints for 7.4 wins, which means they could be looking at a record of 7-10 or 8-9. While the NFC South has been won before with a sub-.500 record, the Saints will likely be shooting for 9-8 or better to have a chance.
Last season, New Orleans went 5-11, but they’ve got the third-easiest strength of schedule in the league this season, per ESPN, so there should be room for improvement.
What Helps The Saints
The Saints will be helped this season by what ESPN lists as their biggest strength: “Continuity.”
“The Saints returned almost their entire coaching staff from last season, and quarterback Tyler Shough had an entire offseason to prepare to be the starter,” ESPN’s Katherine Terrell writes as part of the preview package. “That gave him the opportunity to build chemistry this summer by taking a number of offensive players to work out together in California. The Saints have an opportunity to build off the momentum established in 2025 when Shough took over as quarterback and led the team to five wins.”
Terrell goes on to question the Saints’ depth as her biggest concern for the New Orleans season ahead, but there’s something to be said for a roster that has grown together and knows what each other is capable of.
That doesn’t guarantee a division title, and nothing in the NFL is a given.
But it’s at least reasonable to expect the Saints to be competitive this year, and if things break their way, there’s certainly a chance that they could play beyond Week 18 and into the playoffs.
ESPN Reveals Saints’ Playoff Chances for 2026 NFL Season