The New Orleans Saints are 1-2. Tyler Shough is coming off a loss in which two of his fourth-quarter turnovers helped swing the game.
Bettors apparently aren’t scared off.
Shough has become the most-backed NFL MVP candidate this week in data provided by Oddschecker, receiving 23% of all bets tracked by the company. Oddschecker said Shough’s price shortened from +6600 to +2500 following his productive opening three games.
That puts an interesting number behind what has already become one of the NFL’s more surprising starts.
Shough has completed 68.9% of his passes for 917 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions through three games. He is averaging more than 305 passing yards per game and owns a 99.2 passer rating
The Saints haven’t translated all of that production into wins yet.
Apparently, some bettors are looking past that part.
Tyler Shough Leads Oddschecker MVP Betting Despite Saints’ Record
Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers said Shough has drawn “keen interest” from bettors and attributed his shortening price to that surge in support.
According to the company’s numbers, 23% of MVP bets placed this week have gone on Shough, more than Josh Allen and Brock Purdy at 16% apiece.
There is an important distinction, however.
The +2500 figure cited by Oddschecker should not be viewed as a universal price across the betting market. BetMGM listed Shough at +6600 on September 29, while the books displayed by VegasInsider on September 30 ranged from +3500 to +6600. Odds can vary significantly between operators and move quickly as money enters a market.
What appears much clearer is the direction of the attention.
Three games have been enough to turn Shough from a long-shot name on the board into a quarterback bettors are actively chasing.
Shough’s Raiders Loss Came With a Complicated MVP Case
The timing makes the movement particularly notable.
Shough threw four touchdown passes against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3, becoming the first Saints quarterback to reach four in a game since Derek Carr in January 2024. He finished 29-of-42 for 250 yards with those four touchdowns and one interception.
For most of the afternoon, it looked like another step forward.
Then the game flipped.
Shough lost a fumble before throwing an interception on New Orleans’ following possession, and Las Vegas turned both turnovers into scoring opportunities during its comeback. The Raiders ultimately won 35-27, dropping New Orleans to 1-2.
That makes the MVP betting interest more striking.
Shough isn’t being backed because the Saints have stormed out to the top of the NFC. Bettors are responding to the quarterback’s individual production even while New Orleans tries to turn that production into wins.
And that will become the harder part of any serious MVP conversation.
Saints Give Shough National Stage Against Falcons
Shough gets another opportunity to strengthen the argument in Week 4.
New Orleans hosts the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football on October 5, giving Shough and the Saints a nationally televised NFC South matchup after their disappointing home loss to Las Vegas.
Three games have already been enough for the betting market to notice him.
If Shough wants the MVP conversation to become something more than an intriguing September futures trend, the Saints’ record eventually has to start following his stat line.
Saints QB Tyler Shough Suddenly Drawing Huge MVP Interest