New York Jets rookie David Bailey is set for a historic season in 2026.
NFL draft analyst Lance Zierlein projected the best and worst-case scenarios for every defensive first-round pick in 2026. After presenting both cases for every player, he shared his actual prediction of what he thinks they will do this upcoming season. For Bailey, he predicted that he will finish with 9.5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss, and 55 total tackles.
How significant would that be? According to the team, Hugh Douglas has the most sacks by a Jets rookie in history, with 10 sacks in 1995. That is followed by Shaun Ellis (8.5 sacks in 2000) and Joe Klecko (8 sacks in 1977) in team history.
The Floor vs. Ceiling for Bailey as a Rookie
Zierlein said the best-case scenario for Bailey features him putting up “one of the highest rookie sack totals of the past decade, pushing into Bradley Chubb (12 in 2019) and Micah Parsons (13 in 2021) territory. While the 6-foot-3, 251-pounder shows he needs work as a run defender, his speed and slipperiness at the top of the rush create consistent pocket pressure throughout the year.”
However, in the worst-case scenario, Zierlein explained, “Bailey has a much tougher time than expected navigating his jump from the Big 12 to the NFL, struggling with pro tackles’ length and strength en route to a five-sack season.
All things considered, a five-sack floor doesn’t sound too bad, but that isn’t the impact you expect with someone who was taken with the No. 2 overall pick. Bailey is the highest-drafted defensive player in team history.
Some More History
Ahead of the 2026 season, the NFL Media Group predicted who would win all of the top awards, that includes Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
There was a panel of 19 analysts. Bailey received only three votes, which tied for third on the leaderboard. Caleb Downs of the Dallas Cowboys received the most votes (five). He was followed by Rueben Bain Jr of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with four votes. Bailey was tied with Washington Commanders linebacker Sonny Styles.
Despite the voting, Bailey is the second betting favorite (+500) to win DROY in 2026, only behind Bain (+450), per Vegas Insider.
The Jets have a rich history of players winning DROY honors:
- Sauce Gardner, cornerback, 2022
- Sheldon Richardson, defensive lineman, 2013
- Jonathan Vilma, linebacker, 2004
- Hugh Douglas, defensive end, 1995
- Erik McMillan, defensive back, 1988
This isn’t an exact science, but it’s a sex appeal award. If you can pile up sexy stats like interceptions and sacks, you have a greater shot at winning the hardware.
Bailey was selected because of his affinity for taking down the opposing quarterback. Head coach Aaron Glenn was recently asked what has stood out about Bailey behind the scenes.
“His professionalism as a young player. He’s here early in the morning getting his body taken care of, watching what he eats, making sure his weight stays level. Actually, following some of the veterans, following Double-D (Demario Davis), following Harrison (Phillips), following those guys, asking those guys questions (about) how they’ve stayed in the league this long as a young player. Listen, you don’t get that a lot from a long player, but he’s a very wise man. I’m glad we have him. He’s the type of player; he’s going to be in the league for a long time the way he operates,” Glenn responded.
Rookie David Bailey Predicted to Threaten Jets History