Let’s face it most of the trepidation from Eagles Nation heading into the post-season comes from the lasting memory of that second half against the Buffalo Bills a few weeks ago, a second half that saw the Philadelphia Eagles offense completely stop after taking a 13-0 lead into the locker room at the half. It was a second half that saw the Eagles pass for -2 yards and Jalen Hurts go 0-7. It was the second time this season that the reigning Super Bowl MVP went an entire half without completing a pass. Is that bad? Well, it’s not good. The Birds won both of those games as winning despite themselves has come to be their identity. While it was painful to watch that second half in Orchard Park I also found it interesting that the Eagles’ offense showed none of the creativity and nuance they had in the previous two games, wins over the Raiders and Commanders. I also found it curious that in the first half of that Buffalo game Hurts went 13-20 for 110 yards, 1 TD and no interceptions with a QB rating of 95.8. In that game, a 13-12 win, the Eagles ran 30 offensive plays with Hurts under center, the most of any game this season, but only two of those happened in the second half. It’s one thing to play conservatively to try to protect a lead and another to go completely brain dead.
SCENE SET:
What: Wildcard Game Round 1
Eagles (11-6, 5-3 Home) vs (49ers 12-5, 7-2 Away)
Where: Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
When: 4:30 pm
Betting Lines: Eagles -6, Over/Under 44.5
Moneyline: Eagles -105, 49ers -115
TV: FOX
What’s at stake: Eagles win: They will play the Bears in Chicago next weekend
49ers win: They will play the Rams in L.A. next weekend
In the 24-0 win over Las Vegas Birds offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo called five designed quarterback runs for Hurts, totaling 39 yards and he called four designed runs the following week in a 29-18 win in Washington totaling 40 yards. Against the Bills there were no called designed runs for QB1 which gave me a little pause. Since that game I have heard this notion from sports talk radio, random Birds fans, and other green-bleeding faithful followers across the Delaware Valley that the Eagles might be holding back the offensive playbook, just showing enough to get by, albeit it winning ugly, only to unleash the “beast” when the post-season commences today at Lincoln Financial Field against the San Francisco 49ers, 4:30 pm kick-off.
Conspiracy Theories
While I’m not a big proponent of conspiracy theories and don’t believe head coach Nick Sirianni is waiting to unveil his super-secret offense today at 4:30, others disagree with me.
Long time Eagle Birds Josh Kotzen told testified to this the other day:
“I think that the first half two weeks ago, is who they are…It feels like they played the whole season like the preseason. I think they kept a lot of their good sh#t off of tape.”
Another life-long Eagles fan who allowed me to quote him anonymously, after spottin him at the gym, believes the Birds played 16 games this year with this philosophy:
“Do what you have to do, win as ugly as you have to win to get to the playoffs, which is the only season that matters and then show who you are.”
Still another I heard on sports talk radio 94.1 WIP this past week believes this:
“I think it is intentional. I think they showed flashes of who they are during the halves and quarters of games that they lit it up. Then I think they knew they could do it, and to protect against injury, keep what works off any game film.”
But those conspiracy theories have been quickly dismissed by some NFL execs and dignitaries:
“No, they aren’t holding anything back,” a veteran front office personnel executive to Senior NFL writer Matt Lombardo of Between The Hashmarks. “The quarterback just struggles with accuracy, and the running back had half the season he did last year.
“You have to remember that Saquon helps Jalen Hurts tremendously. He did last year, but wasn’t able to this season.”
https://mattlombardonfl.substack.com/p/anvils-and-opportunities-facing-hard
The Truth Hurts
Well, I’m not sure what statistics that excecutive is looking at but Hurts has a career completion percentage of 64.4% and of course that number jumps to 66.8% in the playoffs. He also owns a 6-3 career playoff resume with a Super Bowl ring and two title game appearrances in the past three seasons.
In fairness to the running game the Eagles’ offensive line was beleagured by injuries this year, rarely opening the holes that helped spring Barkley and the ground game to run all over their opponents last season and was so fundamentally foundational to Philly’s success in 2024.
Barkley, last year’s rushing king surpassed 100 rushing yards only twice this season, after smashing the century mark 14 times, including three times in last year’s playoff run to the Super Bowl. He averaged 125 yds per game in four playoff games last year.
Disturbing Trend Theories
Mike Tanier of The Between The Hashmarks Podcast pointed out this past week even more alarming trends about the Eagles’ offense this past season.
Tanier fingered offensive coordinator Kevin Petullo and Sirianni for never even trying to establish Barkley as a threat out of the backfield, attempting the fewest screen passes of any team in the league and no team called fewer designed rollouts for its quarterback than the Eagles did. Hurts could also be found at the bottom of the list of starting quarterbacks for targeting the slot receiver.
And what would be a possible reason or theory for that?
“I’ve heard concerns about Hurts,” a longtime NFL scout told Between The Hashmarks. “Especially in the intermediate passing game and him being scared to make risky throws.”
In fairness to QB1 that’s whisper down the hearsay lane so take it with a grain of salt (whatever that means).
But against a defense like the 49ers have, with a secondary that ranks 24th in the league, giving up an eye popping 232.4 yards per game and 10 passing touchdowns this past season, the Birds may not have to rely on the run.
Money Talks, Speculation Walks
When it comes down to it speculation is just noise that gets eliminated once the ball is kicked off. I prefer to deal in facts and the fact is that Hurts’ ability to rise to the occasion in clutch moments is well documented – 10 fourth-quarter comebacks, 13 game-winning drives, a Super Bowl ring, and two Super Bowl appearances, and he is the only player to pass for 10 post-season touchdowns and rush for 10 post-season touchdowns, and he’s done that in just nine playoff games.
Hurts is undeniably an unquantifiable advantage that roughly 13 other playoff teams would love to have leading them in their postseason journey.
While Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and the Eagles’ defense should be stingy enough to hold serve against San Francisco, the league’s third ranked defense might be Philadelphia’s crutch in these playoffs until they face more complete teams in the weeks ahead should they get past the 49ers
For Eagles Nation it would be nice to believe that at this point in the season, the idea that what the Eagles have shown offensively all year isn’t the full playbook, and that Nick Sirianni and Kevin Patullo have been waiting for the post-season for the offensive reveal.
But if that’s not the case then the Eagles will be operating within the same narrow margins they’ve played with all year and it’s those those narrow margins that may decide just how far their run goes.
Rival NFL Execs Sound Major Jalen Hurts Alarm Ahead of Eagles’ Playoff Opener as Conspiracy Theories Run Amok