49ers Could Make $23 Million Gamble on ‘Mixed Results’ Free Agent

John Lynch will have a decision to make on the 49ers Chase Young.

Getty John Lynch will have a decision to make on the 49ers Chase Young.

LAS VEGAS — The 49ersChase Young has undergone what can only be called a strange season, starting off with the woebegone Commanders and then arriving on the doorstep of the 2024 Super Bowl with the 49ers after a trade deadline deal to bring him to San Francisco.

Of all the guys who appreciate being here for Sunday’s 49ers-Chiefs showdown, Young might be at the top of the list.

“This is definitely an experience you can’t put into words, one of those games that you just dream of going to as a kid, you never know if you’re gonna get there. There’s guys who have been in the league over 10 years and never been to this game. But it’s definitely a great atmosphere here,” Young said.

There’s a wider question with Young, too, though. That involves what will happen to him after the Super Bowl, when he hits free agency after playing for a team that brought him in for what many assumed would be a short-term stay.

Or maybe not. According to Pro Football Focus, despite an up-and-down season, even after his arrival in San Francisco, there could be a desire to keep Young in place and see if a full season with the team unleashes Young’s talent.

Young is, according to the site, the 49ers’ best candidate for a franchise tag contract this offseason.


Franchise Tag Could Be Well Ahead of Actual Free Agent Value

It would not be cheap, and that’s something GM John Lynch would have to seriously consider.

The projected value of a tagged defensive end, according to Spotrac, is $20.2 million. According to OverTheCap.com, the value is $23.3 million. It’s a one-year commitment if the 49ers chose to take that route, which would afford the team some time to make a fuller evaluation of whether Young is worthy of a long-term contract.

But it is a serious gamble, even in the short term.

That would be a marked overpay by the 49ers, at least according to projections. Spotrac looked at Young’s projected value on his next contract, and had him down for a one-year deal worth $13 million. And on PFF’s free-agent board, which has Young at No. 28 overall, he is tabbed for a one-year contract at $15 million.

If that is truly the market value for Young, then giving a franchise tag to him would not make much sense. It would, though, allow the 49ers to keep him in place with longtime friend and mentor Nick Bosa, without having him negotiate elsewhere.

As PFF wrote: “The 49ers traded a future third-round pick for Young, and the results have been mixed. Still, the 49ers might not want to lose the asset and decide to keep him around for another year. Young is just 24 years old and is now a full year removed from his injury in 2022. There is still a ton of talent here, but it remains to be seen if the 49ers are willing to invest that much cap space on their No. 2 EDGE rusher.”


49ers’ Chase Young Is ‘Blessed for Real’

Bosa, of course, is the top-paid defensive player in NFL history after signing a five-year, $170 million contract with the 49ers last year. He played with Young at Ohio State, and certainly, Young has seen the value of sticking with his old Buckeye teammate.

He has also seen the value of being with an organization like the 49ers, which has him on the brink of being a champion.

“I’ve definitely stopped and just, sitting. Know where I am at, I am in the big one. Just blessed for real. Everything I’ve been through, I am ready to play,” Young said.

Young is referring to the torn ACL he suffered as a rookie, the injury that limited him to just 12 games in 2021 and 2022. That injury could be the only reason that Young, a Pro Bowler as a rookie, is not a sure-shot big-money free agent this winter.

He holds no bitterness about that, though.

“It’s part of life man, it’s part of the game. You’re gonna have those, it’s all how you respond, it’s all how you respond,” Young said at his media availability this week.

“Nobody really envisions themselves getting hurt, or bad things happening in life. But we all know it’s part of life and bad things are going to happen, but it’s all about how you respond to adversity. I ain’t stopping no time soon.”

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