The San Francisco 49ers are projected to field one of the NFL’s 10 best offenses in 2026. That still isn’t enough to keep pace with their biggest challenger in the NFC West.
NFL.com senior editor Dan Parr ranked San Francisco’s offense No. 9 in his preseason projection, while placing the rival Los Angeles Rams at No. 1. The sizable gap is especially timely with the two teams scheduled to open the regular season against each other on September 10 in Melbourne, Australia.
In other words, the 49ers won’t have to wait long to find out whether NFL.com’s assessment is on target.
The Rams already held a clear statistical edge last season. Los Angeles led the NFL with 29.6 offensive points per game, while San Francisco ranked ninth at 25.3. The metric excludes points produced by the defense or kick-return units.
Parr expects more of the same in 2026.
NFL.com Gives Rams Huge Edge Over 49ers
It’s difficult to argue with the basic case for Los Angeles.
The Rams are bringing back most of the offense that led the league last season, including reigning MVP Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams.
Parr essentially made continuity the foundation of his No. 1 ranking. He wrote that he needed to see another offense knock Los Angeles “from their perch” before putting anyone else ahead of Sean McVay’s group.
Stafford also entered training camp looking healthy. Rams senior staff writer Stu Jackson reported that the 38-year-old quarterback looked “sharp” in his first camp practice after an offseason plan designed to have him ready for Week 1.
That’s a significant advantage for a team that isn’t asking its offense to reinvent itself.
Los Angeles also brings back Williams and Blake Corum in the backfield. Williams enters 2026 seeking a fourth consecutive season with more than 1,100 rushing yards and at least 10 touchdowns, according to the Rams.
The 49ers have more moving parts.
Kyle Shanahan Still Gets Top-10 Respect
San Francisco being ninth shouldn’t necessarily be read as an indictment.
Parr’s reasoning is actually quite complimentary of Kyle Shanahan.
The 49ers were short-handed at receiver throughout 2025 and had Brock Purdy available for only a little more than half the season. Despite those problems, they still finished ninth in offensive points per game and won a playoff game on the road.
That performance appears to be a major reason Parr is willing to keep them in his top 10.
San Francisco also reshaped Purdy’s receiving corps during the offseason. The 49ers signed Mike Evans, reunited with Deebo Samuel and added second-round pick De’Zhaun Stribling, whom Parr singled out after a strong training camp.
But there are more variables than Los Angeles has to deal with.
Evans has already dealt with an injury, while George Kittle is attempting an unusually quick return from the Achilles tear he suffered in January. Parr also identified Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams staying healthy and maintaining their level of play as important factors in determining San Francisco’s offensive ceiling.
The Rams, by comparison, are largely asking a league-leading offense to keep doing what it already did.
49ers Get Immediate Chance to Challenge Rams Ranking
The beauty of the projection is that it won’t remain theoretical for very long.
San Francisco and Los Angeles meet in Week 1 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, the NFL’s first regular-season game in Melbourne. Kickoff is scheduled for September 10 at 5:35 p.m. Pacific time.
The matchup also continues one of the NFC West’s defining coaching rivalries.
Shanahan’s 49ers have historically had success on the road against McVay’s Rams, winning 10 of their last 13 regular-season road meetings, according to the 49ers.
But NFL.com’s projection paints Los Angeles as the team San Francisco is chasing offensively entering 2026.
The Rams aren’t merely one or two spots ahead. They’re the No. 1 projected offense in football, while the 49ers sit at No. 9.
For Shanahan and Purdy, Melbourne offers an immediate opportunity to make that gap look much smaller.
San Francisco 49ers Predicted to Have Weaker Offense Than LA Rams