Fresh off a Super Bowl title, the Seattle Seahawks have already been on the receiving end of one of the NFL’s most surprising predictions for 2026.
Leading off Sports Illustrated‘s list of “100 Bold Predictions” for the 2026 season is a prognostication about a Seattle return to the Super Bowl, even as the franchise attempts to replace several key contributors from its championship roster.
In his predictions roundup published June 2, Sports Illustrated senior writer Conor Orr made his No. 1 call a punishing one for the defending champions. According to Orr, the Seattle Seahawks return to the Super Bowl this season only to lose by a narrow 23-21 score.
The team that defeats Seattle? The Houston Texans.
Orr labeled his predicted Texans-Seahawks championship showdown as the headline development of the entire 2026 NFL season.
Orr projects Seattle to win the NFC West again at 12-5, driven by a favorable “rest differential” between games and the structural advantages built by head coach Mike Macdonald and defensive coordinator Aden Durde. He also projects the Los Angeles Rams, widely favored to come out of the NFC, to be devastated by a minus-seven net rest differential and a punishing schedule, clearing a path for Seattle to repeat as West Division champions.
Super Bowl LXI Prediction and the Texans’ Case
Houston went 12-5 in 2025 and reached the Divisional Round despite one of the league’s harder schedules. Orr’s case for the Texans rests on a comparatively easier path in 2026, an offense still developing under quarterback C.J. Stroud, and a defense that ranked among the league’s best even while the team navigated difficult conditions last season. Houston and Seattle also shared two of the league’s best net rest differentials in Orr’s analysis.
The Texans, founded in 2002, have never advanced past the Divisional Round in 25 seasons of existence, carrying a franchise playoff record of 7-9. Their postseason ceiling, to this point, has been a second-round exit. Orr projects the franchise to claim a Super Bowl title on its first attempt.
Sam Darnold and Seahawks Face Offseason Losses
Whether Seattle reaches that stage depends on how cleanly the roster absorbs a wave of departures. Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III signed a three-year, $45 million deal with the Kansas City Chiefs. Edge rusher Boye Mafe landed with the Cincinnati Bengals on a three-year, $60 million contract. Cornerbacks Coby Bryant and Riq Woolen also departed, heading to the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively.
Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak left for the Las Vegas Raiders‘ head coaching job, taking quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko with him, leaving the Seahawks to build a new offensive staff from scratch.
Seattle addressed its needs with relative restraint. The team selected Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price in the first round as Walker’s primary replacement and signed veteran edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr. to help offset the loss of Mafe. Wide receiver Rashid Shaheed, whose three return touchdowns on special teams were a signature piece of the championship run, returned on a new deal. Tight end Harrison Bryant arrived as a depth addition in late April.
At quarterback, Sam Darnold enters 2026 on the final two years of his three-year, $100.5 million contract, carrying a cap number of $37.9 million — the highest on the roster, according to Spotrac. The quarterback who led Seattle to a 29-13 Super Bowl LX victory over the New England Patriots now enters the season behind a new offensive staff and a retooled roster — the conditions that will determine whether the “bold” Super Bowl prediction holds up.
Defending Champion Seahawks Get Stunning 2026 Prediction