The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had a stranglehold on the NFC South Division pretty much since quarterback Tom Brady signed in free agency and led the franchise to a Super Bowl win following the 2020 season — the 1st of 3 consecutive playoff appearances.
Brady’s time led into the Baker Mayfield era in Tampa Bay, where the former No. 1 overall pick reeled off consecutive NFC South Division titles and consecutive Pro Bowl appearances in 2023 and 2024 before going 8-9 in 2025 as the Buccaneers missed the playoffs for the 1st time since 2019.
ESPN’s Ben Solak predicts that the Buccaneers’ run will officially come to an end in 2026 as a surprise team — the New Orleans Saints — takes over as the NFC South’s new power behind 2nd-year starting quarterback Tyler Shough.
“All it took to win the division last year was eight wins!” Solak wrote on July 1. “Three teams tied at 8-9 — the Panthers, Buccaneers and Falcons — while the Saints manned the basement at 6-11 … and the Saints look like an ascendant team to me. They have a young quarterback good enough to win with, sharp coaches on both sides of the ball, good offensive line play and enough young bets at the skill positions for this offense to be more than just Olave. They’re a few blue-chip players away from true contention, but in the measly NFC South with a fourth-place schedule? A divisional title is achievable.”
Saints Delivered Crushing Loss to Bucs in 2025
The 1st meeting between the Buccaneers and Saints in the 2025 regular season ended with a convincing 23-3 win in New Orleans. The Bucs left that game with a 6-2 record, Mayfield still in the MVP conversation, and as 1 of the hottest teams in the NFC.
By the time the teams met again in Week 14 in Tampa, it was a much different story — Shough was 13-of-20 passing for 144 yards to go with 55 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in a 24-20 win.
The loss dropped the Buccaneers to 7-6 overall — a stretch in which they lost 7 of 8 games.
Saints Dominance Could Signal End of Bowles Era
The Saints haven’t won the NFC South since 2020 — the year the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl. It was the last of 4 consecutive NFC South titles for the Saints dating back to 2017 and the final division title in the Sean Payton era.
New Orleans climbing back on top of the division in 2026 could signal the end for Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles, who enters the season on the hot seat.
Pro Football Focus NFL reporter Bradley Locker actually put Bowles at the top of his list of NFL head coaches with their jobs on the line in 2026.
“Bowles has secured a solid track record in Tampa Bay, compiling a 35-33 record with three NFC South titles in four years,” Locker wrote. “But the 2025 season was a very disappointing one, as the Buccaneers won just two of their final seven games and missed the postseason. Concerningly, issues pervaded both sides of the ball. Baker Mayfield regressed to a 64.8 PFF passing grade while struggling with accuracy amid injuries, and Tampa Bay also placed 23rd in rushing EPA per play. On defense, the Buccaneers ranked 22nd in PFF coverage grade and tied for 20th in explosive pass rate surrendered … if the Buccaneers don’t at least finish with a winning record, then Bowles’ tenure probably won’t extend into 2027. That may be the case no matter what if Tampa Bay doesn’t climb back atop the division standings.”
Buccaneers Get Bad News in Latest NFC South Prediction