The Tampa Bay Buccaneers extended quarterback Baker Mayfield to a deal that was the biggest in franchise history. While the team is optimistic that the deal will be beneficial to both sides, there is a track record in recent history of contracts like this blowing up in the team’s face.
NFL Insider Charles Robinson compared the deal to Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray. Those two are not the teams that they signed their massive extensions with. Robinson notes that all three have injury questions that have impacted their play.
“Mayfield’s banged-up 2025 season has to have some lingering concerns, even if it was complicated by so many other injuries,” wrote Robinson. “Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray signed big extensions under the historical specter of injuries and were abject disasters.”
Mayfield and Murray were both former number one overall picks, while Tagovailoa was drafted fifth overall.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Warned About Baker Mayfield Extension
Tagovailoa signed a four-year, $212M extension in 2024. The Dolphins were 12-13 when Tagovailoa started after signing his deal. He missed nine games over that span. Miami released him after two seasons.
Now, Tagovailoa has a $55.5M cap hit for the Dolphins in 2026 while he plays for the Atlanta Falcons. The team has no choice but to reset and struggle for a season.
Murray signed a five-year, $230M extension in 2022. He missed six games in 2022, nine games in 2023, and 12 games in 2025. The Cardinals were 16-25 when he started after signing his extension.
He has a $46.6M dead cap hit, and the Cardinals are in the same spot as Miami. The two are competing to pick first in the 2027 NFL Draft to fix their quarterback disaster.
Mayfield Hopes to Avoid Past Quarterback Failures
Mayfield has not missed a lot of time due to injury, but playing through injury has led to the worst play of his career. After winning a playoff game in Cleveland, Mayfield tried to play through an injury.
The Browns went 6-8. Mayfield saw his completion rate drop by 2%, his touchdown rate drop by 1.2%, and his interception rate increase by 1.5%. This is what led to the team moving on from Mayfield to trade for Deshaun Watson.
In 2025, Mayfield started the season strong, but got hurt and whimpered to the end. In the first nine weeks of the season, the Bucs were 6-3. Mayfield had 16 touchdowns and two interceptions. He was averaging 243 yards per game.
Then, he got hurt. The Bucs finished the year 2-6. He had 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions and was down to 187 yards per game. He was not the same player.
This is the style of play that Robinson is warning about.
When Murray and Tagovailoa are healthy, they are worthy of the extensions they signed. However, as time goes on, the injuries start to stack up. The Bucs need Mayfield to avoid this potential issue.
There is a reason they did not want to give him the third year on his extension, and even when they did, it was not a guaranteed salary.
NFL Insider Sounds Alarm on Bucs $165M Mayfield Deal