The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a four-year stranglehold on the NFC South and a franchise-best five-straight playoff appearances.
With all that success, even ESPN’s Bill Barnwell says he hesitated to make the prediction he made for the Buccaneers this year. Barnwell’s process for his recent prediction article required that three division winners wouldn’t win their respective divisions again. He therefore has the Buccaneers not winning the NFC South and missing the playoffs.
“And it’s tough for me to have more confidence in the Bucs than I do in the Lions, Ravens or any other team in the top five, even if I’m optimistic about what Tampa Bay is capable of doing in 2025,” Barnwell wrote. “Maybe history is telling me I’m too locked in on a 10-win Bucs team holding on to the division title in an NFC South where everybody gets to play an easy schedule.”
“Of course, if I put my mind to it, it’s not impossible to imagine a scenario where the Bucs miss out on what would be their sixth consecutive playoff appearance,” Barnwell added. “They’re already battling injuries to Tristan Wirfs, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan, and new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard doesn’t live up to the departed duo of Dave Canales and Liam Coen (both of whom were hits as coordinator). A defense that was league-average last season doesn’t make up the difference.”
Barnwell ultimately predicted the Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South behind second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. With that said, Barnwell was sticking with his process for his predictions.
“Ask me who I think will win the NFC South outside of this exercise and I’d pick the Bucs,” Barnwell wrote.
Buccaneers’ Big Weakness
GettyAntoine Winfield Jr.
As much as the Buccaneers worked to improve the defense this offseason, defending the middle of the field is still a concern.
Pro Football Focus rated the Buccaneers 26th for coverage on passes in the middle third of the field, and the Buccaneers ranked second-to-last in passer ratings allowed. Part of that came from injuries, such as safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who missed eight games last season.
With Winfield healthy, that could improve, but the Buccaneers also need to improve at linebacker. SirVocea Dennis will be one to watch if he can help the position group improve in 2025.
Injuries Could Hinder Buccaneers’ Biggest Strength
The Buccaneers offense has produced consistently over the past two seasons with quarterback Baker Mayfield under center.
That will be tested this year, given the host of injuries on the offensive side of the ball, especially with Pro Bowl left tackle Tristan Wirfs out due to a knee injury. The last time the Buccaneers played without a star offensive lineman for an extended period, in 2022, it hindered Tom Brady and company with center Ryan Jensen out.
However, Jensen missed the regular season, and Wirfs will only miss four games. Conversely, Mayfield will have to navigate life without Godwin and McMillan in the passing game, and Emeka Egbuka is a rookie, no matter how much promise he has already shown.
That said, if Egbuka takes off as he has already shown, the Buccaneers have an immediate one-two punch at wide receiver with Mike Evans for Mayfield to make year three strong early on. In addition, Mayfield is working with his third consecutive new offensive coordinator in Josh Grizzard, but that hasn’t been a problem the previous two times for Mayfield in Tampa.
Buccaneers Fans Will Love & Hate ESPN Insider’s Prediction