They paid him $100 million to transform their pass rush, but the Washington Commanders shouldn’t expect Odafe Oweh to get to quarterbacks often during the 2026 NFL season. At least based on a statistical prediction that’s “not great” for Washington’s headline edge-rusher.
Oweh’s projected by ESPN analyst Seth Walder to tally just seven sacks during his debut campaign with the Commanders. Oweh lands 20th on Walder’s list of the predicted top-50 pass-rushers for the new season.
Walder believes “finishing 20th on this list is solid, even if the 7.0 forecast doesn’t feel amazing. But Washington fans should be realistic. Oweh is a good pass rusher, but not a great one. At $24 million per year in today’s cap environment, that’s essentially what they paid for.”
That’s a rough take because the Commanders didn’t drop nine figures to pry Oweh from the Los Angeles Chargers for him to be just another guy. Instead, they are betting last season’s late surge is just the start of the 27-year-old finally hitting his stride as an elite game-wrecker.
The Commanders getting what they want from Oweh will depend a lot on which version of the former first-round pick takes to the field this year.
Odafe Oweh’s History Informs Modest Prediction
There’s a good reason why many believe the Commanders overpaid for Oweh. It has to do with how erratically he’s produced since being selected with the 31st-overall pick by the Baltimore Ravens back in 2021.
Walder outlined the disparity in Oweh’s numbers. He pointed out “Oweh is coming off an interesting season in which he recorded zero sacks in five games with the Ravens, following by 7.5 in 12 with the Chargers after being traded. Which was the real Oweh? I’d say … both? Oweh was actually recording a strong pass rush win rate before the trade — it just didn’t result in sacks. The sacks eventually came once he went to Los Angeles.”
The Commanders saw the version of Oweh they want when he logged 10.5 sacks in 13 games, including the playoffs, for the Bolts. His next step must be to bring the heat on every down and prove a major warning about his consistency wrong.
Oweh can give the Commanders what they need thanks to a factor Walder didn’t mention.
Commanders’ Changes Can Defy Predictions
The system implemented by new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones is arguably the best reason to believe Oweh can defy Walder’s modest prediction. Jones is going to call a defense based on moving parts, disguise and sophisticated blitzing.
It’s the formula he learned from Brian Flores with the Minnesota Vikings, and that system has been kind to edge-rushers. Outside linebackers Dallas Turner and Andrew Van Ginkel shared 15 sacks last season, while Jonathan Greenard and Van Ginkel combined for 23.5 the year before.
Oweh has the talent and momentum to post somewhere in between those numbers, in the nine to 10 sacks range. That would represent a solid return for his first year, particularly if fellow new arrival K’Lavon Chaisson is creating pressure from the other side.
Chaisson surprisingly didn’t even made Walder’s list, despite recording 10.5 sacks to help the 2025 New England Patriots reach the Super Bowl. A Chaisson and Oweh double act can outperform expectations with the Commanders, provided both stay healthy after missing time this preseason.
The availability of bookend pass-rushers will be the key to making Jones’ schemes work.
Commanders Get ‘Not Great’ Odafe Oweh Stats Prediction