If the Colorado Avalanche knew a year ago what they know now, Mikko Rantanen might be gearing up for his 11th season in burgundy and blue. Instead, the former No. 10 pick from 2015 is long gone — and the fallout from his departure still stings.
Last January, with Rantanen’s unrestricted free agency looming, the Avs made the gut-wrenching call to move their high-scoring winger. He was shipped to the Carolina Hurricanes in a three-team deal that landed Colorado forwards Jack Drury and Martin Necas. Carolina, unable to hammer out an extension, quickly flipped Rantanen to Dallas, where the Stars wasted no time locking him up to an eight-year, $96 million contract.
Cue the heartbreak. Rantanen returned to haunt his old team in the spring, torching Colorado for five goals and seven assists in a first-round showdown — capped by a Game 7 hat trick that pushed the Avs out of the playoffs.
But that painful exit isn’t the “if they only knew” that NHL insider Frank Seravalli was talking about.
In June, the NHL and NHLPA unveiled a new Collective Bargaining Agreement that will reshape the financial landscape starting in 2026. Among its key features: a steady climb in the salary cap, from $88 million in 2024-25 to $113.5 million by 2027-28. Translation: teams that thought they were squeezed for space might have had more wiggle room than they realized.
And that’s where the Avalanche find themselves déjà vu all over again.
Colorado Forward Martin Necas Enters Final Season Before Free Agency
This time, the player in question is Necas — 26 years old, dynamic, and just one season away from unrestricted free agency. As Seravalli pointed out in his “Open Ice” segment for Bleacher Report, the parallels to last year’s Rantanen saga are impossible to ignore, only magnified by the recent reports of superstar Kirill Kaprizov rejecting the Minnesota Wild’s offer of eight years, $126 million.
“I’m fascinated by what’s happening with Martin Necas and the Avs, because they’re right back in the same situation they were at this time last year with Mikko Rantanen,” Seravalli said.
“I think you could have gotten Rantanen done at just a shade south of 8×12. Do that deal as opposed to now potentially paying Marty Necas, if he has another north of point per game season, this is just numbers, he’s gonna be in that 10 million dollar a year range, which, man you’re just right back at square one. Not an easy situation to be in.”
Necas isn’t Rantanen — yet. But he’s coming off a season split between Carolina and Colorado where he scored 83 points in 79 games, and his profile is on the rise. He’s fast, creative, and capable of driving a line, something the Avs sorely need behind Nathan MacKinnon. And at 26, he’s just hitting his prime.
The tricky part? He knows it.
Necas signed a two-year, $6 million bridge deal in 2022 with the Hurricanes, a contract that expires after this season, making him an unrestricted free agency in July 2026. The Avs would love to lock him up before then, but every day the cap climbs, so does his price tag.
Situation With Martin Necas Eerily Similar to Mikko Rantanen in 2024-25
The situation has an almost cruel symmetry. Last fall, Colorado hesitated with Rantanen, fearing a long-term cap crunch. Now they’re staring at a younger forward in a similar spot, except this time they know a major cap windfall is coming. The irony is that the very patience they showed last time — waiting for clarity before committing — could backfire again if Necas puts up another point-per-game season.
Mile High Sticking put it bluntly: Colorado “can’t afford to let history repeat itself.” Losing one top-line winger in his prime was hard enough. Watching another skate out the door, just when the cap is about to balloon, would border on organizational malpractice.
And yet, the calendar keeps moving. Training camp is here, the season opener is weeks away, and no deal is in place. Denver Sports noted that the situation has already drawn national media attention, an early warning sign that patience may be wearing thin on both sides.
If the Avs don’t feel confident about an extension, the trade question starts creeping in. Trading Necas — the return for Rantanen — less than a year after acquiring him would be an awkward look, a tacit admission that the cycle never really broke. It would also strip away one of the few offensive weapons they added to support MacKinnon in his prime years.
General manager Chris MacFarland knows the optics. He also knows the stakes. Colorado isn’t in a rebuild — they’re in win-now mode, with MacKinnon and Cale Makar entering their best years. Trading Necas to avoid another Rantanen situation would protect the asset column but damage the roster in the short term.
So where does that leave them? Stuck in the same place they were last fall: trying to thread the needle between winning now and planning for the future. The new CBA makes life easier, but only if they’re willing to act boldly. Necas wants to be paid like a top-line winger. The Avs have to decide if he is one — and if so, whether they’re ready to make the financial commitment they weren’t ready to make with Rantanen.
For now, the season begins with Necas in the lineup, expected to be a key piece in another playoff run. But hovering over every shift, every goal, every headline, is the question that defined last season and might define this one too: will the Avs pay to keep their star, or will they be forced to watch him thrive somewhere else?
Because if Colorado ends up trading Martin Necas a year after trading Mikko Rantanen, the parallels won’t just be eerie. They’ll be haunting.
Avalanche GM Chris MacFarland Risks Making Same Mistake Twice