Detroit Red Wings winger Lucas Raymond landed among the NHL’s best contracts in a ranking published by The Athletic.
In a July 29 piece, The Athletic ranked the top 10 best contracts per value. The list landed the Red Wings’ Raymond in the eighth slot.
Raymond is entering the second year of an eight-year contract carrying an $8.075 million AAV. That deal met with skepticism and scrutiny at the time, seems like a bargain now after Raymond explored for a 27-goal, 80-point season in 2024-25.
That situation prompted The Athletic to evaluate Raymond’s contract, determining its market value at $12.6 million. In other words, Raymond should be getting $12.6 million AAV instead of $8.075.
The difference creates a surplus value of $31 million over the contract’s lifetime. As such, said surplus value points toward Raymond being underpaid based on his performance.
Of course, this evaluation is based on the first year of his current deal. There’s always a chance that Raymond’s numbers could dip, particularly toward the end of the contract. But judging from Raymond’s overall track record, a dip seems unlikely.
If anything, Raymond could have a 100-point season in him before his contract is up. If that’s the case, Raymond’s contract will only appreciate. Perhaps the next time The Athletic evaluates the best contracts in the league, The Red Wings star’s deal will jump to the top of the list.
Red Wings Can Expect High Value Probability from Raymond’s Contract
Another intriguing aspect is the Positive Value Probability calculation on Raymond’s contract. The calculation shows a 92% score, revealing that Raymond’s contract is almost assured to be a good one throughout its lifetime.
Yes, there’s a chance that injuries or inconsistency could derail Raymond’s numbers. But as stated previously, his track record suggests otherwise.
Raymond had played in four full seasons. His first year, 2021-22, he scored 23 goals and 57 points. The following year saw a slight dip to 17 goals and 45 points, but he played in 74 games that season.
The next two years saw Raymond break through. In 2023-24, the then-21-year-old Raymond scored 31 goals and 72 points. That performance earned him the eight-year extension. His performance last season convinced any holdouts that the Red Wings made the right call.
All things remaining equal, Raymond should be on track for a 30-goal, 80-point season. There’s no reason to suppose he can’t do it. Unless something unforeseen occurs, Lucas Raymond should top his career numbers in 2025-26.
Raymond’s Net Ratings Show Elite Level
Lastly, The Athletic showed Raymond’s Net Rating. His total +9.4 Net Rating places the Red Wings’ star at a 92% level. That’s an elite-level ranking, highlighting his offensive ranking at +8.4.
In addition, Raymond’s defensive ranking isn’t a drawback as some might suspect. Raymond shows a +1.0 defensive ranking, highlighted by a 97% difficulty rating. That rating underscores how the Red Wings deploy Raymond against the opposition’s best players.
Intriguingly, Raymond’s Net Rating projects to grow over time. The projection shows Raymon’s Net Rating climbing from +9.4 to +12.1 by the end of his contract. If that trend holds, the Red Wings could be getting $14.8 million worth out of Raymond’s $8.1 million cap hit.
Red Wings Forward Included in NHL’s Best Contracts: The Athletic