Sportsnet’s newest contributor, NHL insider Frank Seravalli, has offered up a column of bold predictions in his first written piece for the network. As part of his 32 bold predictions (one for each NHL franchise), he detailed how he sees Connor McDavid leaving the Edmonton Oilers.
And yes, he believes McDavid will leave the only NHL team he’s ever played for at the end of his current contract.
Seravalli Makes His McDavid Prediction
5. Connor McDavid does not sign a contract extension in Edmonton next summer, when first eligible, and plays out 2027-28
My belief: Though undecided, if McDavid is ultimately changing teams, it won’t be via trade, as he won’t want to weaken the next team before his arrival. Think small sign-and-trade with a piece for his rights, similar to Mitch Marner.
McDavid, who is playing in the first of a two-year extension he signed for $12.5 million per season, has given the Oilers a window to try and win a Stanley Cup. The captain took a discount to ensure the team could build a winner around him, but the Oilers failed to advance past the first round in 2025-26, after reaching two consecutive Stanley Cup Finals in 2023-24 and 2024-25.
Many believe he’s already a bit frustrated. It makes sense that some would predict his departure if the Oilers fail to capitalize on the window he provided.
Where Will McDavid Go?
Seravalli’s prediction offers a couple of notable details. First, he emphasizes that McDavid won’t want to make his future team weaker by being part of a blockbuster trade. That’s what the Oilers would want and need if they traded McDavid, but Seravalli hints that McDavid will use his no-move clause to block a huge deal that would see the team part with several assets.
While it’s a logical thought and theory for the team he joins, the Oilers would be getting shafted in this scenario, and it’s hard to imagine McDavid intentionally handcuffing the Oilers like that.
That would mean the Oilers would have to be willing to do a sign-and-trade or let him walk in free agency, something that feels like a stretch, assuming McDavid doesn’t hold his current team to the fire.
A lot can happen in two years, including a fallout between Edmonton and McDavid, but to predict it now seems presumptuous.
Could McDavid Stay With the Oilers?
Seravalli isn’t the only analyst who believes McDavid will walk. Jeff O’Neill of TSN suggested there was a zero percent chance McDavid stays, even if the Oilers win a Stanley Cup in the next two years.
But, McDavid could stay in Edmonton, and he’s not indicating that he’s looking to leave. Yes, he wants to win. However, he’s keen to win in Edmonton, where he’s put in 11 seasons of hard work trying to get this group and his friends over the hump.
NHL Insider Lays Out How McDavid’s Oilers Exit Could Happen