Kirill Marchenko has become one of the most talked-about names on the NHL trade market. His recent comments to Columbus media hinted he’s looking past his time with the Blue Jackets, which has fueled speculation linking him to teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens. But landing him may be more complicated than it first appears.
According to insider Darren Dreger, the real obstacle isn’t just the trade package Columbus would demand — it’s what comes after. Speaking on TSN1050, Dreger laid out the two-part problem: any team giving up significant young talent to acquire Marchenko would then have to find a way to sign him to a contract worth roughly $12 million per year.
That’s not a small amount of money for any team, let alone two clubs that don’t have a lot of cap space and aren’t looking to move key pieces off of their respective rosters.
Where Would the Money Come From?
That price tag doesn’t look out of line with where the market is heading — Cutter Gauthier’s recent extension at $13.5 million suggests top-end scorers are only getting more expensive to sign long-term. That doesn’t mean either the Maple Leafs ($2.82 million over the cap ceiling) or the Canadiens ($2.78 million under) could afford him.
This season, Marchenko is making $3.85 million, so that’s not necessarily the concern. It’s next season that becomes the issue.
For Toronto, the math is tight. Even next season, the team has just over $6 million to spend. Auston Matthews sits at the top of the payroll at $13.5 million, with William Nylander close behind at $11.5 million. Slotting a $12 million cap hit for Marchenko into that mix would mean squeezing him in right alongside the team’s highest-paid players.
Montreal’s situation looks more favorable, but it’s the internal cap and the way the team has been intentionally structured that creates a potential hurdle. Noah Dobson is currently the Canadiens’ highest-paid player at $9.5 million, meaning a $12 million Marchenko deal would immediately reset the top of their payroll structure. The Canadiens have been convincing players to sign for under market value for a few seasons now, and they boast one of the most overall financially team-friendly rosters in the NHL. GM Kent Hughes won’t easily throw that structure out of whack unless the player he gets in the deal is a sure thing.
Both Teams Would Like the Player, Maybe Not the Contract
Marchenko would clearly upgrade either team’s forward group. But between the trade cost to pry him away from Columbus — which would be extremely steep — and the extension required to keep him, both the Leafs and Canadiens might face too many challenges to be realistic landing spots.
This doesn’t mean either team is out. However, the Blue Jackets have the ability to trade Marchenko anywhere. He lacks trade protection, and there will be other teams more prepared to give the winger what he might want on his next contract.
A team like the New York Islanders, who have room this season and just under $43 million in space next season, might be a more realistic option.
Marchenko Trade Talk Hits Snag For Maple Leafs And Canadiens