The Montreal Canadiens are set to open the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday. The showdown could be one of the most entertaining first-round series, given the firepower on both sides.
While the Habs have proven they can hang with the best of them in the NHL, the odds do not seem to favor Montreal this playoff season.
A study by the folks at casino.org surveyed various oddsmaking platforms and sportsbooks, determining that the market does not think the Canadiens have much of a chance this postseason.
The data showed that the Habs have a 3.49% chance of winning the Stanley Cup this season. The numbers don’t take individual series matchups into account. But what the figures reveal is the lack of confidence the market has in a Canadian team taking home this year’s biggest prize.
And that’s something Montreal will be looking to brush aside. The Canadiens will be striving to prove oddsmakers wrong with a strong playoff run this season. The club has a 100-point scorer in captain Nick Suzuki and a 50-goal star in Cole Caufield.
Both individual milestones bode well for the club. But it’s the Canadiens’ depth and star power that could help the club outlast a veteran team like the Lightning.
That said, there might be one particular issue that could be holding Montreal back.
Goaltending Will Be Biggest Canadiens Question Mark
The Montreal Canadiens face a major question mark in the crease. The club will be heading into the postseason with Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler as its tandem. That’s hardly a playoff-tested duo. But their inexperience doesn’t mean they can’t play a key role in the postseason.
During the regular season, Dobes seemed solid, while Fowler was actually a pleasant surprise for the Habs. But if there is a weak link in an otherwise strong chain, it would be in the crease. That’s why the Canadiens’ overall structure and game plan will need to focus on playing a defensively reliable game in front of their young netminders.
There’s no telling how much of a weakness the goalie tandem would be for the Canadiens. But that’s something that may not necessarily become an issue.
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Injuries May Play a Role in Habs’ Playoff Run
For all of the solid depth and firepower in the Canadiens’ lineup, the club faces two critical injury situations. Blueliners Alexandre Carrier and Noah Dobson remain as question marks heading into the postseason.
Carrier is officially day-to-day and is expected to play on Sunday against the Lightning. Carrier had missed time since late March with an upper-body injury. The expectation is that he will be back in the lineup, assuming he’s at least well enough to play, though not 100%.
As for Dobson, he’ll be out for the time being. The 26-year-old took a shot off the hand last weekend, potentially sustaining a broken hand or wrist. The Canadiens did not elaborate on Dobson’s injury. However, the expectation is that fans and the club could learn more in about a week or so.
Dobson’s absence will certainly test Montreal’s blueline depth. But that’s just another obstacle the club will be looking to overcome as they defy the odds.
Canadiens Looking to Defy Odds in 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs