New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer is heavily favored to win the Calder Memorial Trophy as the league’s top rookie.
On Tuesday night, the NHL announced that Schaefer, Ivan Demidov of the Montreal Canadiens, and Beckett Sennecke of the Anaheim Ducks are the three finalists for the NHL’s rookie of the year award.
The nominations for this award were subdued, as they came out the same night as the NHL Draft Lottery, which the Toronto Maple Leafs won to claim the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft.
Matthew Schaefer is the Clear Favorite to Win the Calder
Schaefer was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NHL Entry Draft by the NY Islanders, and he made good on that top selection with an absolutely exceptional rookie season.
The 18-year-old Canadian played in all 82 regular-season games for the Islanders, scoring 23 goals and 59 points. The Islanders were competitive all season long, but just missed out on the postseason by a few points despite Schaefer’s strong play. The rookie played so well that Team Canada’s upper management even considered putting him on the Olympic team. He just missed the cut, but there is no doubt he will play on the next Olympic squad for Canada, and all of them after that for the rest of his career.
According to Kalshi, Schaefer has a 97% chance of winning the Calder Memorial Trophy, which indicates he is more-or-less a lock to win the trophy.
Ivan Demidov and Beckett Sennecke Both Had Fantastic Rookie Seasons
Although Schaefer is likely going to win this award, you can’t take anything away from Demidov and Sennecke, who both had terrific rookie seasons for the Canadiens and Ducks, respectively.
Demidov was the 5th overall pick in 2024. He is just 20 years old, and he is in his rookie season for the Canadiens, though he did play 2 games last year. This season, the Russian played in all 82 regular-season games for the Canadiens, scoring 19 goals and 62 points for the Habs. The Canadiens are currently participating in the playoffs, as they are taking on the Buffalo Sabres in the second round after beating the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round. If they are going to beat the Sabres and advance to the next round, then a big showing from Demidov would surely help the team pick up the series win.
Sennecke is also just 20 years old, and he was taken 3rd overall by the Ducks in 2024. He scored 23 goals and 60 points in his rookie season while helping lead the Ducks to the playoffs. The Ducks beat the Edmonton Oilers in a first-round upset and are currently going up against the Vegas Golden Knights in the second round. Like Demidov, if Sennecke’s team is going to pull off a second-round upset, then it will take the production of everyone, including the rookie.
The smart money is on Schaefer winning this award, but Demidov and Sennecke both had terrific seasons. In other years, they would have more of a chance to win the trophy, but this year, it’s Schaefer’s award to lose.
Matthew Schaefer Heavily Favored to Win Calder Trophy