The Toronto Maple Leafs are easily one of the most improved teams this offseason. But as conventional wisdom has shown, it’s one thing to win the offseason, and it’s another completely different situation to actually deliver when the rubber hits the road.
Still, Leafs fans have reason to be bullish about their team. The club got an encouraging projection from the folks at Tankathon.
Tankathon’s early projections for the 2027 NHL Draft show the Maple Leafs picking 20th in the first round. While the pick is pledged to the Boston Bruins, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic.
Landing the 20th-overall pick means the Maple Leafs are projected to make the playoffs. That’s fantastic, considering how last season went.
The numerous offseason additions, plus top prospect Gavin McKenna figure to turn things around in Toronto. Plus, the arrival of coach Jim Hiller bodes well for a revival in Toronto.
But that’s only half of the story, the fact that the Maple Leafs are set to pick 20th reveals a tough reality that fans will have to come to grips with.
And because of that reality, Toronto fans should take these bullish predictions with a grain of salt.
Maple Leafs Could Be Headed for Another First-Round Exit
The bullish part of this projection is that the Maple Leafs are expected to make the playoffs.
The not-so-encouraging part is how the Leafs’ season could unfold.
A projected 20th overall pick would put Toronto in the postseason, but it also suggests the team could end up fighting for a wild-card spot rather than competing for one of the top positions in the Atlantic Division.
That’s a major distinction.
If the Maple Leafs sneak into the playoffs through a wild-card spot, they’ll draw one of the conference’s top two seeds in the opening round. That’s no bueno for a team hoping to finally make a deep postseason run.
And if Toronto ends up facing one of the Eastern Conference’s heavyweights, another short playoff appearance suddenly becomes a very real possibility.
That’s the twist behind the projection.
The Maple Leafs may be good enough to make the playoffs without being good enough to actually do much once they get there. For a franchise desperate to get beyond the first round, that would feel like another disappointing summer waiting to happen.
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Toronto Still Has Time to Prove the Projection Wrong
Of course, there’s an important caveat here. This situation is only a projection.
The algorithm isn’t predicting exactly what the Maple Leafs will do. It’s taking the information available right now and projecting how the season could unfold.
Toronto has plenty of time to change the narrative before the regular season even begins. New additions could perform better than expected. Young players could take significant steps forward. Gavin McKenna could make an immediate impact. Jim Hiller could get more out of the roster than his predecessor.
And, perhaps most importantly, injuries and other circumstances can completely change the trajectory of an NHL season.
So there’s no reason for Maple Leafs fans to panic over a projected 20th pick. If anything, it gives the organization something to prove. The projection suggests Toronto is a playoff team, but not necessarily a serious contender.
That’s a pretty good starting point.
Now the Maple Leafs have an entire season to show that they’re capable of being much more than that.
Maple Leafs Get Encouraging Prediction — With a Twist