It is safe to say that the Toronto Maple Leafs are enduring a disastrous season. After being perennial contenders in recent years, Toronto has taken a massive step backward during the 2025-26 campaign. In fact, the Leafs currently find themselves just one point from the bottom of the Atlantic Division standings. This comes as the team has just 18 wins in its first 39 games of the season.
Toronto’s ongoing struggles have put them behind the eight ball heading into the second half of the season. A 2026 Stanley Cup playoff birth now even seems fairly unlikely. According to MoneyPuck.com, the Maple Leafs have just a 13.8% chance to qualify for the upcoming postseason. These odds are currently the lowest among all Eastern Conference clubs.
The website claims that their model is determined by simulating the remainder of the NHL season 100,000 times to help create playoff probabilities. Each of these matchups is affected by specific categories, including scoring chances, goaltending, and the overall ability to win. MoneyPuck.com also asserts that its model correctly predicted winners 60.4% of the time throughout the 2024-25 campaign.
On top of the depressing odds to qualify for the playoffs, the Maple Leafs have also been given just a 5.8% chance to win a postseason round, and 1.1% odds to make the Stanley Cup Final in the summer.
Lack of Star Production, Injuries Cause Toronto Maple Leafs to Drop in Standings
GettyAuston Matthews is having the worst statistical season of his entire career.
The Maple Leafs’ struggles can be attributed to several key areas of concern. For starters, Toronto failed to truly replace star Mitch Marner ahead of the 2025-26 campaign. The forward opted to join the Las Vegas Golden Knights during the offseason. Marner led the Leafs in total points in 2024-25 with 102.
Injuries, however, have also taken a toll on Toronto. Fellow stars Auston Matthews and William Nylander are currently listed as day-to-day with minor issues. Nevertheless, Matthews previously missed multiple weeks in November with another injury. The Leafs are without Chris Tanev, Anthony Stolarz, and Brandon Carlo as well.
Outside of injuries, players such as Matthews and Carlo have regressed this season. For instance, Matthews is currently averaging just 0.82 points per game on the campaign. If this trend continues, it would be the lowest tally of his entire career. Carlo also has two total points in 18 games this season. Toronto previously gave up its 2026 first-round pick to the Boston Bruins to get the defenseman.
Maple Leafs Should Benefit from Olympic Break
While Toronto’s situation is bleak at the moment, they do have time to turn things around. There is still more than half of the season remaining, and the Leafs could benefit from the upcoming break for the Olympics. A potential reset in February is likely welcomed by the team’s brass.
Toronto’s precarious playoff situation does not seem as dire to other news outlets. According to The Athletic, the Leafs have a 27% chance of making the upcoming playoffs. This figure actually represents the ninth-best odds among all Eastern Conference teams. The website predicts that Toronto will ultimately earn 88 points on the season. If so, that would be 20 points below what the Leafs grabbed in 2024-25.
Maple Leafs Odds to Make Playoffs Reach Rock Bottom