The Toronto Maple Leafs are off a slow start in their bid to get back to the NHL playoffs, after missing out last year for the first time since 2015-16.
So far, however, the Leafs are just 8-10-2 and the sluggishness can be blamed on one factor — goal differential. While Toronto is tied for fourth in the NHL with 67 goals, it stands 29th in most goals allowed at 69.
But in the spirit of “the best defense is a good offense,” a new trade pitch published on Wednesday and aimed at the Maple Leafs and the Colorado Avalanche brings one of the most prolific goal-scoring forces in the NHL to Toronto, at the relatively steep cost of next year’s first-round draft pick and a 12-year veteran left-shot winger.
Nathan MacKinnon, the Colorado Avalanche center who led the NHL with 53 goals last season, would become a Toronto Maple Leaf in the proposed blockbuster.
The trade pitch was created using tools provided by PuckGM and would send MacKinnon to Toronto for forward Nick Paul and the Leafs’ 2027 first-round pick, shifting $9.454 million in salary-cap cost to Toronto. Colorado would save money. Toronto’s ledger tells a different story.
MacKinnon, born in Halifax on Sept. 1, 1995, went first overall to Colorado in the 2013 NHL draft and has never played for another NHL club. He won the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie, the Lady Byng Trophy for sportsmanship, a Stanley Cup in 2022 and, in 2024, the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award.
“Nathan’s a No. 1 center, a franchise center,” Avalanche general manager Chris MacFarland said in 2022, when MacKinnon re-signed, according to Colorado Rubber.
The Avalanche signed their star goal-scorer to an eight-year, $100.8 million extension that pays him $12.6 million a season through 2030-31 and includes a full no-trade clause, according to Sporting News.
Last season, MacKinnon piled up 74 assists for 127 points in 80 games. This season he has 10 goals and 20 assists through 19 games, pushing his career total to 1,172 points in 969 games.
Nick Paul, 31, grew up in Mississauga, Ontario, and went 101st overall to Dallas in 2013. The Stars shipped his rights to Ottawa in the 2014 Jason Spezza trade. Tampa Bay acquired him in March 2022 for Mathieu Joseph and a fourth-round pick, and that spring he scored both Tampa Bay goals in Game 7 against Toronto.
Paul then signed a seven-year, $22.05 million contract extension carrying a $3.15 million cap hit through 2028-29 and a modified 16-team no-trade clause.
Toronto acquired him on July 1 for goaltender Dennis Hildeby and two future picks. He has 214 points in 537 regular-season games. After scoring 22 goals in 2024-25, he fell to seven last season, when injuries limited him to 51 games.
Colorado Avalanche Savings Without Nathan MacKinnon
Removing MacKinnon’s $12.604 million cap hit and adding Paul’s $3.15 million would cut Colorado’s payroll by $9.454 million. The Avalanche currently project to $104.47 million against a $104 million ceiling, with $2.292 million of that tied up in bonus-related charges. The savings would arrive as the ceiling climbs to $113.5 million in 2027-28.
The pick matters as well. Colorado held no selection before the fourth round in June’s draft, and a 2027 first-rounder would restore a slot the club lacked this year.
Toronto Maple Leafs Cap Hurdle With Nathan MacKinnon
The Maple Leafs project to a $111.49 million hit, roughly $7.49 million over the $104 million ceiling. Adding $9.454 million lifts that to about $121 million, or nearly $17 million beyond the limit. MacKinnon’s no-trade clause would also give him a veto. Toronto would lose a forward who has averaged 2:17 of penalty-kill ice time and skates alongside Kirill Marchenko and William Nylander.
On the ice, the gap is stark. MacKinnon produced 127 points last season, 112 more than Paul’s 15. Colorado, which won the Presidents’ Trophy by eight points, would surrender the NHL’s leading goal scorer while keeping Cale Makar and Martin Necas. Toronto would gain a center who scored 53 goals, along with a salary that cannot fit under the cap without major subtractions elsewhere. The Leafs already moved Nick Robertson to Pittsburgh and lost Matias Maccelli to the New York Islanders this summer.
So who wins? Toronto gets the higher-scoring player. Colorado gets the savings, the pick and a penalty-killing forward. Toronto would need to slash some payroll to make this one work. Would Toronto do it, for a goal-scorer of MacKinnon’s caliber?
Who says no?
Maple Leafs Trade Pitch Lands $100 Million Goal-Scoring Champ Nathan MacKinnon