The Toronto Maple Leafs‘ saga involving Mitch Marner came to a head this summer, with the club passing on Marner. The Leafs were smart enough to recoup a valuable piece in Nicolas Roy from what was otherwise a lost cause.
Some fans and analysts criticized the Maple Leafs for not doing more to retain Marner. Mainly, the soured relationship between the star winger and the team was among the key reasons why Marner was reluctant to re-sign with Toronto.
But the Maple Leafs were right to pass on breaking the bank to keep Marner in the fold for a key reason. An August 6 piece in The Athletic looked at the contract efficiency of all 32 teams. Collectively, the Vegas Golden Knights ranked seventh in the league. Their smart cap management has allowed the club to navigate the complexities of the NHL salary cap.
But digging a little deeper into the Golden Knights’ roster, an interesting number pops up. Mitch Marner’s contract is not among the team’s best. In fact, Marner’s contract is near the bottom for two reasons.
Firstly, The Athletic Positive Value Probability ranks Marner’s contract with a 55.4%. In other words, it’s pretty much 50/50 that Marner’s contract will be a good one in the long run.
Secondly, the contract’s total surplus value is only $3.3 million. That number reveals that the Golden Knights shouldn’t expect Marner’s contract to age very well.
Those two numbers make a compelling argument to justify the Maple Leafs’ decision to let Marner take his act to Vegas.
Maple Leafs Could Have Avoided an Albatross
Undoubtedly, Mitch Marner is a great player today. But judging from The Athletic’s assessment, there’s no telling how much longer that will be the case. Marner’s $12.4 million cap hit may look steep now, but the rising cap ceiling could ultimately water down the contract.
But that perception will only hold as long as Marner is a productive player. But as he gets into his 30s, his production could decline. If that’s the case, the contract could age poorly. But the last two or three years, Marner’s deal could become an albatross.
The risk here is that the Golden Knights get stuck with an untradeable contract by year five or six. That’s a ticking time bomb that the Maple Leafs did well to avoid.
Of course, there’s always the chance that Marner channels his inner Sidney Crosby. If he can sustain his high level of play, Marner could make the Maple Leafs look foolish five or six years from now.
Leafs May Regret Letting Marner Go
The Toronto Maple Leafs may end up regretting Marner’s departure. While the relationship was highly fractured, the team could have taken steps to remedy the situation. Perhaps there was more the club could have done to keep Marner in the fold.
Now, that’s all conjecture. There’s no telling if anything could have happened to repair the relationship between Marner and the Maple Leafs. So, Marner’s inevitable departure could lead the Leafs to regret not having done more to keep him in the fold.
Perhaps Marner will go the way of Phil Kessel. Kessel was essentially driven out of town. The Maple Leafs shipped him off to the Pittsburgh Penguins where he won two Stanley Cups.
If Marner’s path follows that of Kessel’s, the Maple Leafs could be wearing the dunce cap yet again.
Maple Leafs Right to Pass on Marner for this Crucial Reason