The market has yet to price in the Toronto Maple Leafs are a playoff team this season.
Despite the exciting 5-4 win over the New York Rangers on Thursday night, there remains plenty of skepticism about the team’s chances of actually securing a postseason berth.
According to the latest lines by BonusFinder, the Maple Leafs are listed at -120 to see postseason action. That works out to an implied probability of 54.55%.
The odds, such as they are, show that the market really isn’t convinced either way. That situation raises questions about why the market wouldn’t necessarily be bearish or bullish on the Maple Leafs’ playoff chances this season.
Arguably, the biggest reason has to be the fact that Toronto has not shown a consistent string of performance that would suggest they’re legit. While they’re currently riding a three-game winning streak, the market will likely need much more evidence that this is a team built for the postseason.
Then again, even if the Maple Leafs were able to get back to the playoffs, reservations may linger about their chances of actually winning a playoff round.
Until Toronto proves they can stack up well against bona fide Eastern Conference contenders, questions will remain.
Maple Leafs Defense Has Too Much to Prove
The Maple Leafs’ three-game winning streak is encouraging, but it hasn’t erased the concerns surrounding their blue line.
Chris Tanev’s indefinite absence is particularly troubling. Toronto can survive losing a defenseman for a short stretch, but being without one of its more reliable defensive options for an extended period is a different challenge entirely.
The penalty kill has been phenomenal, giving the Maple Leafs a legitimate strength to lean on. But its overall sustainability will be a major question mark moving forward. Toronto still needs to show it can defend consistently at five-on-five, limit quality scoring chances and keep opponents from turning defensive breakdowns into goals.
That’s where the uncertainty lingers.
The current group might be good enough to get Toronto into the playoffs, but the market has little reason to assume it can hold up against the Eastern Conference’s better teams over a seven-game series. Until the Maple Leafs prove they can manage without Tanev, skepticism about their postseason ceiling is understandable.
The Goaltending Has Yet to Settle the Debate
The other question is whether Toronto can trust its goaltending when the season is on the line.
Sergei Bobrovsky has been around league average so far, while Anthony Stolarz hasn’t exactly been brilliant. Neither has necessarily sunk the Maple Leafs, but neither has given the market much reason to view the position as a definite advantage.
This point is crucial because questions regarding Toronto’s defense aren’t likely to disappear overnight. Even a capable blue line gives up dangerous chances over the course of a season. The question is whether the goalies can bail the team out often enough when those chances turn into quality shots.
The Maple Leafs don’t necessarily need a goaltender to steal every other game to make the postseason. They do need consistency, particularly if Tanev’s absence leaves the defense more vulnerable than it would otherwise be.
For now, the market has reason to wait and see. If Bobrovsky and Stolarz find another level, Toronto’s playoff case gets stronger. If they remain merely adequate, the Maple Leafs may have to win too many games the hard way.
Maple Leafs Still Haven’t Convinced Market They’re a Playoff Team