The Maple Leafs knew they were taking a risk when they signed Darren Raddysh to an eight-year contract.
They just probably didn’t expect the risk to be questioned quite this quickly.
Raddysh is coming off a remarkable breakout season with the Tampa Bay Lightning. At 30 years old, he established career highs across the board, recording 22 goals and 70 points in 73 games while averaging more than 22 minutes per night. Toronto then acquired him in a sign-and-trade and committed $68 million to keep him for the next eight seasons.
That is a massive commitment to a player who had only 73 points in his first 176 NHL games.
And that is precisely why Frank Seravalli’s latest piece published in Casino.org raises an uncomfortable question for the Maple Leafs.
One NHL general manager interviewed by Seravalli wondered whether Raddysh “found something at age 30 or was a massive benefactor of Nikita Kucherov and some unsustainable finishing?” The same executive called his rise unprecedented and said the player’s age would make him nervous.
Seravalli’s conclusion was even more striking, describing the contract as potentially the beginning of “eight nightmarish years.”
That sounds harsh.
But there is a legitimate concern underneath it.
Raddysh does not need to be a bad player for this contract to become a problem. The Maple Leafs simply need him to remain very good for a very long time.
The Maple Leafs Can Help Raddysh Stay at His Best
The biggest question surrounding Raddysh is how much of his breakout was connected to playing alongside elite offensive talent in Tampa Bay.
Kucherov obviously played a role. He assisted on 15 of Raddysh’s 22 goals last season, including nine of his 10 power-play goals. That does not mean Raddysh’s production was artificial, but it does make the transition to Toronto particularly interesting.
Because Raddysh is going to have some pretty good teammates in Toronto, too.
Auston Matthews and William Nylander are not Kucherov, but they are hardly a downgrade when it comes to giving a defenseman dangerous players to work with.
And then there is Morgan Rielly.
Seravalli specifically raised concerns about Raddysh potentially playing alongside Rielly, but there is another way to look at that pairing. Rielly’s ability to move the puck could actually make life easier for Raddysh, particularly if the two develop good chemistry.
The same applies to Toronto’s forwards.
Raddysh has already demonstrated that he can take advantage of opportunities when playing alongside elite offensive players. If Matthews, Nylander and the rest of the Maple Leafs’ top forwards can continue giving him time and space, there is no reason he cannot remain an effective offensive defenseman for several seasons.
That could be enough.
Toronto does not necessarily need Raddysh to score 70 points every year. It needs him to remain a useful top-four defenseman who can move the puck, contribute on the power play and hold his own against difficult competition.
If he does that for the next three or four seasons, the Maple Leafs will probably be quite happy with the contract.
The real concern comes later.
The Back Half Could Be a Problem for Toronto
This is where the eight-year term becomes difficult to ignore.
Raddysh was already 30 when he signed the contract. That means he will be 38 when the deal expires.
The Maple Leafs are therefore not simply betting on a late-blooming defenseman maintaining his current level. They are betting that he can remain useful deep into his 30s.
That is a completely different proposition.
Maybe Raddysh really is a classic late bloomer. There are players who figure things out later than expected and maintain their level far longer than anyone anticipated.
Perhaps this is simply the beginning of his prime.
But there is also a scenario where Raddysh remains excellent for the first half of the contract before his production and effectiveness gradually decline.
That would leave Toronto paying a significant salary to a defenseman in his mid-to-late 30s.
And that is where the final years could look ugly.
Still, there is one very important caveat.
If Raddysh helps the Maple Leafs win a Stanley Cup during the early years of this contract, nobody in Toronto is going to care very much about what happens in Years 7 and 8.
That is the gamble.
The Maple Leafs are clearly in win-now mode, and Raddysh represents one of the biggest bets they have made toward that objective.
If he helps them win, the contract will be remembered differently.
If he doesn’t, Seravalli’s “eight nightmarish years” line could become increasingly difficult to forget.
Maple Leafs Warned of ‘Eight Nightmarish Years’ With Raddysh