The ongoing Mitch Marner saga could take a stunning twist before it ends this summer. As Marner is set to depart the Toronto Maple Leafs, chatter has swirled regarding what Marner could do.
But Marner could stun the hockey world by choosing to sign a short-term deal instead of a long-term one. According to a piece in The Athletic by insider Pierre LeBrun published on June 21, Marner could be looking to sign a two-year deal this offseason.
LeBrun named frontrunners are the Vegas Golden Knights and Los Angeles Kings, with the Dallas Stars as a dark horse team, salary cap constraints notwithstanding.
Additionally, LeBrun states that Marner could be looking to sign a deal in the neighborhood of $12 to $13 million, putting him on track to hit the free-agent market again in two seasons.
Marner’s rumored decision seems contradictory to the prevailing wisdom regarding Marner’s free-agency plan. The bulk of speculation has focused on Marner looking to surpass Leon Draisaitl’s $14 million AAV, making him the highest-paid player in the league.
But if LeBrun is proven correct, Marner may settle for a lower payday on a short-term deal this summer.
One Reason Why Mitch Marner Could Sign a Short-Term Deal
The rationale behind Mitch Marner signing a short-term deal lies in timing. Specifically, as LeBrun notes, the salary cap ceiling is projected to grow to $113.5 million in 2027. That situation means that contending teams, among others, would have the cap space to pay Marner what he wants.
That’s an interesting assessment as the top contenders are mired in salary cap issues. Vegas has just $9.62 in projected cap space per PuckPedia. The Kings have $21.71 million available this summer but have decisions to make regarding their own free agents.
The Dallas Stars have just under $3 million, with other teams like the Edmonton Oilers and New York Rangers hovering around $11 and $13 million.
But as the cap ceiling rises, Marner could have a better chance to land the payday he wants.
Marner Betting on Himself with Short-Term Deal
There’s an element of risk to Marner signing a short-term deal. Instead of taking a hefty payday on a max-term deal after coming off a 100-point season, Marner will be betting on himself with a short-term deal.
In other words, Marner will have to prove in one or two seasons, that he’s worth what he believes he is. Supposing Marner goes to a Stanley Cup contender and wins, his value could skyrocket.
But if Marner flounders, his market value could plummet. Such a situation would put him in a disadvantageous position, risking his desired payday.
Ultimately, Marner’s decision to sign a short-term deal is a calculated risk. He’s betting on himself and the market rebounding in two seasons. He’ll be 30 and potentially retain some potential moving forward.
Perhaps Marner follows conventional wisdom and signs a long-term deal. That would be the safest route to take. Fans should keep an eye on this situation as Marner’s decision could shape the free-agent market for major stars in the years to come.
Mitch Marner Could Make Stunning Free-Agency Decision: Insider