The NHL salary cap is a complex system that often raises more questions than answers. Fans and pundits must pay close attention to the fine print in order to understand some of the moves their favorite teams make.
That said, this summer’s offer sheet chaos is actually a direct consequence of the cap itself. In particular, the rising ceiling is what has led to the madness that fans saw unfolding between the Philadelphia Flyers and Anaheim Ducks over Leo Carlsson.
The Flyers blew the doors off the market with the Carlsson offer sheet. The issue wasn’t the offer sheet itself. It was the fact that it ended up with an $18 million AVV for a player who hasn’t gotten close to the numbers other players have registered throughout their careers.
And that’s the thing. The NHL salary cap had been stagnant for about half a decade due to the COVID pandemic. At the time, the league decided to keep the cap ceiling at $81.5 million from 2019 to 2023.
The cap rose against for the first time ahead of the 2024-25 season, allowing teams to once again increase their spending on contracts. And it’s because of that spending that fans have seen significant salary inflation.
A good example of that is Darren Raddysh. In a flat-cap world, there’s no way Raddysh would have gotten eight years x $8.5 million. Yet, he did. It’s not an indictment of his ability as a player.
It’s the reality that player agents know very well. They know the NHL salary cap is rising, and the only thing teams can do is pay up.
NHL Salary Cap Increases Will Favor Next Wave of Stars
Fans have already seen the seemingly outrageous amount Leo Carlsson got this summer. That’s not taking into account the next wave of massive deals. Those will go to Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini. Both rising stars could very well top what Carlsson got.
Then, there are established stars who will get paid. Specifically, defensemen Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar should cash in thanks to the NHL salary cap increases. How much Makar and Hughes will actually get depends on the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild’s cap situations. Both clubs will be looking to keep costs down as much as possible.
But that may not be the case. If a guy like Carlsson is worth $18 million AAV, how much are Makar and Hughes worth? That’s a tough question that will determine the price tags for other players moving forward.
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Teams Will Find It Hard to Keep Up
The NHL salary cap will only continue to rise as the league’s revenue continues to expand. In particular, new TV deals, arenas, and sponsorship deals should keep boosting the league’s profitability.
That situation will make it hard for teams to keep up. Players will actually have a disincentive to sign long-term deals. As such, players will be pushing the envelope on what teams can pay.
That’s why, in a couple of seasons, Raddysh’s contract will actually look like a relative bargain, as more and more players blow past the current market values.
NHL Salary Cap: Rising Ceiling Means Chaos for Teams