Can the Toronto Maple Leafs do better than Connor McDavid in free agency, less than one year from now? No, they can’t. But, when they have the likes of Auston Matthews, Easton Cowan, William Nylander, Anthony Stolarz, and Morgan Rielly, should they put all of their free agency eggs in the McDavid basket?
Also no. By waiting for the (slight) chance to sign McDavid, the Maple Leafs will shoot themselves in the foot this year.
Maple Leafs Have to Extend Key Pieces
McDavid is a generational talent, often spoken in the same breath as Sidney Crosby and Wayne Gretzky. The 6-foot-1, 194 lb, 28-year-old center is one of the most productive players of all time. He boasts 1082 career points in 712 games in the regular season, to go along with 150 points in 96 playoff games.
However, they cannot let their dreams of signing hometown boy McDavid negatively affect their ability to offer extensions. Stolarz is in the final year of his contract, as is the newly acquired Matias Maccelli.
According to a report from The Fourth Period, the Maple Leafs want to extend Stolarz. His $2.5 million contract expires next summer. Additionally, there is a recently extended goaltender who will serve as the bar to compare to Stolarz.
Anthony Stolarz
GettyAnthony Stolarz
On September 13, the Chicago Blackhawks extended Spencer Knight. The two parties agreed to a three-year $5.83-million per year contract. According to one NHL insider, Knight’s extension will be a benchmark that Stolarz and his representation will point towards.
“There were reports last week about Toronto talking to Stolarz, that will be an interesting one too,” Elliotte Friedman said to his co-host on their September 15th episode. “Because, at the very least, Stolarz has established himself as a 1/1A. At the lowest end, he’s established himself as a 1A. So what’s that worth?”
“I’ve gotta think that if Toronto is looking at three years, Stolarz is probably saying ‘I’m not far from that.'”
Considering that Stolarz’s past two seasons have been far better than Knight’s, it’s reasonable to think that Stolarz’s next deal starts with a six (at the low end). Had Stolarz not been injured during the regular season, he would have been in the conversation to be a Vezina Trophy finalist.
Knight finished the 2024-25 season with 17 wins, a 2.72 goals against average (GAA), a .902 save percentage (SV%), and two shutouts in 38 games. In 34 games, Stolarz had 21 wins, a 2.14 GAA, a .926 SV%, and four shutouts.
Matias Maccelli
GettyMatias Maccelli
With Max Domi on the shelf (for now), Maccelli is getting an audition on the top line during training camp. The 24-year-old had a down year in 2024-25, only recording 18 points in 55 games.
However, if he shoots back up to the 50s & 60s in points, he will be due a raise in the summer. Once his $3.425 million deal expires, he will become an RFA. If he hits at least 50 points this year, he’ll be looking at a new deal that will be in the $4-6 million range.
At minimum, the Maple Leafs are looking at eating up around $10 million of their almost $25 million available space.
They could theoretically still make a new contract work for both of them. However, if McDavid enters the season without inking an extension, they might leave one of Stolarz or Maccelli without a new contract until after the opening of free agency.
Maple Leafs Want to Win This Year
GettyAuston Matthews
Having flexibility at the trade deadline is a massive advantage. That provides another wrinkle to this McDavid dream.
To win this year, the organization needs to have maximum flexibility to add pieces at the trade deadline that increase its chances of finishing the season hoisting the Stanley Cup. The Maple Leafs want to be able to add both rentals and longer-term pieces if the player is the right fit.
They shouldn’t handcuff them to rentals only because they are holding out for the best player in the league. Taking that approach would give them more cap gymnastics to perform when it’s not necessary.
The best way forward in this regard is to acquire whom they can to push for a Stanley Cup. Once the season is over, then they can take stock of who to keep and who to deal with to make way for McDavid.
One way or another, the Maple Leafs’ dreams of adding McDavid need to be put on the back burner. Winning this season and securing players who will help them long-term must be the focus.
Maple Leafs Face Tough Choices While Eyeing Connor McDavid’s Future