There is no question the Vancouver Canucks are going all-in with Zeev Buium. More specifically, the organization is banking on the 20-year-old becoming a replacement for Quinn Hughes.
But the broader question is: Is Buium really a replacement for Hughes?
The short answer is: It’s too soon to tell.
There is not nearly enough data to support any sort of claim either way. In fact, the Canucks’ decision to give Buium a massive contract extension at this point seems more like an article of faith than anything else.
The bottom line is that Vancouver is hoping that Buium will become Hughes’ replacement at some point. When that point actually happens is another story entirely.
If the Canucks are right, they will have made away like bandits with last year’s trade. But if Buium does not live up to expectations, the move would look bad on the organization.
As for the long answer, it seems that there could be enough in Buium’s skill set to determine that he could be the top-pairing, franchise defenseman the Canucks want and need. While he’s nowhere close to delivering on his upside, the team seems comfortable in waiting a couple of more seasons to see if Buium can really help fans forget Quinn Hughes ever existed.
Canucks Made a Calculated Gamble on Buium
The Canucks could have taken the safer route and waited. Buium still had one year remaining on his entry-level contract, meaning Vancouver could have spent another season evaluating whether he was actually capable of becoming the player the organization believes he can be.
But there was an obvious problem with that strategy.
What if Buium breaks out?
If the 20-year-old suddenly becomes a legitimate No. 1 defenseman this season, the Canucks would have been negotiating from a completely different position. Instead of betting on potential, they would have been paying for production.
That’s why the $75.04 million extension makes sense as a calculated gamble. Vancouver is betting $9.38 million per season that Buium’s future is going to be considerably better than his resume suggests today.
There was another reason to act now. Buium was eligible for an eight-year extension before the NHL’s new seven-year maximum took effect. The Canucks weren’t simply buying potential; they were also buying eight years of cost certainty.
That’s a risk. But it could be a very smart one.
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What If Buium Is Good, But Not Quinn Hughes Good?
This is where the Canucks can still come out ahead.
Buium doesn’t necessarily have to become another Quinn Hughes for Vancouver to justify this contract. If he develops into a legitimate top-pairing defenseman who can play 23-plus minutes, move the puck effectively and contribute offensively, the Canucks could still look very smart.
That’s because $9.38 million might eventually look like a bargain if the salary cap continues to rise and Buium develops into the player Vancouver expects. The Canucks are effectively betting that the contract will age better than the player currently looks.
And there is plenty of room for Buium to grow. He is only 20 and has played just 76 NHL games. The Canucks don’t need him to replace Hughes immediately. They need him to become that player over the next several seasons.
If Buium becomes a train wreck, Vancouver will have a problem.
But if he’s simply good?
The Canucks probably still made the right move. In two years, what looks like an overpay today could easily become one of the more team-friendly contracts on the roster.
Canucks: Is Zeev Buium Really Quinn Hughes’ Replacement?