Getty Nick Bosa before the San Francisco 49ers took the field in Houston.
San Francisco 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa is expected to lead the league in sacks, with 15.0, for the 2022 season if the model projections of NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund via her Game Theory column are to be believed.
That’s right, using an advanced analytical model that ran the 18 Week 2022 NFL season 22,000 times and has been “double-checked by “real math people (e.g., PhDs),” Frelund projects that Bosa will finish out his fourth professional season with 15.0 sacks as part of Niners squad projected to win 9.7 games.
Here is Frelund’s thought process on Bosa’s expected sack total:
“Opponent O-lines and game scripts do a lot to decide this category. The first two games of the season (at Bears, vs. Seahawks) should help Bosa get off to a strong start. Since entering the league in 2019, Bosa’s 15.2 percent pressure rate ranks sixth among qualified defenders (min. 500 pass-rush snaps, per NGS). Bosa has 141 total pressures over that time span, which is tied for 14th — and remember, he missed 14 games in 2020,” Frelund wrote.
If Bosa can average nearly a sack-per-game and end out the season with 15.0, he will be the first Niner to hit that mark in consecutive seasons in franchise history, according to Statmuse, and will have set himself up for a similarly unprecedented payday.
A Bounce-Back Campaign Would Be Huge for Bosa
After missing the majority of the 2020 NFL season with a torn ACL, Nick Bosa bounced back in a big way in 2021, amassing 52 tackles, 21 tackles for a loss, and 15.5 sacks over 17 games of action. He was named to the Pro Bowl, drew some consideration for Defensive Player of the Year, and overall proved any doubters wrong who suggested that his rookie season was overrated.
This impressive campaign, understandably, generated a good bit of hype for Bosa’s fourth professional season, which will mark his final campaign at a team-friendly cap hit before his fifth-year option kicks in for 2023 and his long-term extension would go into place in 2024.
Fortunately, if Bosa is able to lead the NFL in sacks as Frelund suggests, he shouldn’t have to worry about where he will play moving forward, as the 49ers will certainly do everything in their power to lock up his services indefinitely.
The 49ers Will Have to Pay Up for Bosa Long-Term
According to Vincent Frank of Sportsnaut, Bosa’s next contract could come in right around the five-year, $155 million range with $90 million guaranteed.
This number would be influenced by the recent extensions signed by T.J. Watt and Aaron Donald, and though it is presumed that Paraag Marathe will attempt to back-load the deal to take advantage of an inflated cap ceiling when the NFL’s new television deal arrives, Bosa will still come in as a $30 million player in AAV and potentially even the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history if he dominates over the final years of his rookie contract.
If Bosa is on pace to lead the NFL in sacks early in the 2022 season, the Niners will likely attempt to lock up their former second-overall pick long-term before Christmas, but as Frank pointed out, a deal likely won’t come until 2023, when the player’s camp has more leverage.