Geno Smith initially signed a one-year, $3.5 million deal with the Seattle Seahawks in April 2022. After a career-best year in his 10th NFL season and a widely unexpected playoff appearance for Seattle, Smith “will be back” in 2023, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport before the team’s January 14 Wild Card matchup.
What the 32-year-old’s next deal looks like remains to be seen, however.
Speaking to Heavy Sports on behalf of Sling TV, ESPN analyst Mina Kimes pointed to Ryan Tannehill’s four-year, $118 million deal, signed in March 2020 as a 31-year-old, as a potentially realistic blueprint for Smith’s looming contract extension.
“I think ideally the Seahawks would strike a contract with Geno Smith that’s very similar to what the Titans did with Ryan Tannehill, where it’s not top-of-the-market money but it’s still a fair amount. And it’s a three-year contract that’s really maybe two years as that kind of mid-market deal. And I also think it shouldn’t necessarily stop them from drafting a quarterback,” Kimes told Heavy’s The Matt Lombardo Show on January 13.
Now a year removed from Russell Wilson, Seattle will have plenty of resources to continue building with, including a projected $48 million in available salary cap space in 2023, the fourth-most of any NFL team, per Over The Cap.
According to The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz, “Accounting for cap inflation, a similar deal (to Tannehill’s) would pay Smith about $33 million a year with a first-year cap hit of around $22 million.” For reference, Wilson’s average annual salary on the four-year, $140 million extension he signed with Seattle in 2019 was $35 million.
Spotrac’s calculated market value for Smith places the 2023 NFC Pro Bowler at $39.3 million annually, closer to recent deals handed out to Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins.
Seahawks Could Opt for a QB ‘Flier’ Outside of Top 5 Picks, Says Mina Kimes
Despite Seattle and Smith surpassing expectations “in just about every possible way” if you ask Kimes, the Seahawks are still sitting pretty in the draft order thanks to the fallout of the Wilson trade and the Broncos’ 5-12 finish.
In total, Seattle currently holds nine total picks — five in the first 85 selections — in April’s 2023 NFL draft, including Denver’s No. 5 overall pick and their own first-rounder at No. 20 overall.
“There are two quarterbacks — C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young — that are kind of being eyed, right now, as going top two. … I think the Seahawks will give those quarterbacks and a couple others a look and consider whether or not they want to take one at (pick) five, potentially trade up. I think you have to go through that process but that shouldn’t stop you from keeping Geno Smith in the fold, especially for next season,” Kimes said.
With trade speculation already swirling around the No. 1 pick held by the Chicago Bears and split opinions on top QB prospects, Seattle will have options come April and the lead-up to it.
“I would lean toward keeping (Smith) and using that (No. 5) spot — whether you trade down or use that — to flush out the rest of the team,” Kimes told Heavy. “Then maybe taking a flier on a quarterback; I don’t know, like an Anthony Richardson … a little bit later in the draft because while the Seahawks are in the playoffs, it’s still a pretty flawed team, especially on defense. I think that front-seven could really use some help.”
Geno Smith: Seahawks ‘Embraced Me & I Want to Repay Them’
Throwing for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns and an NFL-leading 69.8% completion percentage on 572 passing attempts under Pete Carroll’s tutelage, Smith is expected to greatly expand upon his $17.4 million career earnings.
“I want to finish my career in Seattle,” Smith told reporters after Seattle’s 41-23 Wild Card loss to the 49ers. “I want to be here. The town, the city, the team, Coach [Pete] Carroll, the organization — they all embraced me. I was a guy who probably could have been out of the league. They embraced me, and I want to repay them for that.”
Despite some late-season kinks and an early playoff exit, Smith also matched his season-high in rushing yards (366) as a rookie with the New York Jets back in 2013.
“Geno, in some ways, has always been this quarterback. He’s always been pretty accurate. He throws a beautiful deep ball,” Kimes told Heavy. “I think what’s really surprised me watching him this year has just been the play-making. His ability to create outside of the pocket, use his legs.”