Superstar Lionel Messi is the frontrunner to win a major championship following the disappointing finish for Argentina at the FIFA World Cup 2026.
The Inter Miami star will return to the pitch following the MLS All-Star game, looking to lead his club to the MLS Cup.
And the odds seem to favor that outcome.
A study by the folks at Oddscheckers reveals that Messi and Inter Miami have the best chance to take home their second championship. The odds show Miami has a 25% chance of claiming the MLS championship, well ahead of other clubs in the league.
| MLS winner | Odds | Implied probability |
| Inter Miami | +300 | 25% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | +600 | 14% |
| Los Angeles FC | +900 | 10% |
| Nashville | +900 | 10% |
| FC Cincinnati | +1400 | 7% |
| Chicago Fire | +1600 | 6% |
| San Diego FC | +1600 | 6% |
| San Jose Earthquakes | +2000 | 5% |
Source: Oddschecker, 2026.
The data show that Messi’s biggest rival is the Vancouver Whitecaps. The Whitecaps are neck-and-neck with LAFC and the San Jose Earthquakes for top spot in the Western Conference.
Meanwhile, the Messi-led Miami squad trails Eastern Conference leaders Nashville SC by two points. The bookies, however, don’t really see Nashville pulling out a historic first championship victory this upcoming season.
Messi and Inter Miami Looking to Make History
Messi and his crew will be looking to continue making MLS history. The club captured its first championship last season, snagging the trophy away from defending champions LA Galaxy.
The Galaxy, in fact, were the last team to win back-to-back MLS Cups. The California team won consecutive championships in 2011 and 2012. The team won three titles in four seasons, capturing one more in 2024.
That’s the pattern Miami would like to follow. The club looks like a solid contender to repeat, despite not leading their conference.
Still, that’s not something that should take away from Miami’s chances of repeating as champions. Messi and company will face some tough competition along the way. But that’s just par for the course.
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MLS Cup Isn’t a Consolation Prize
It’s important to note that winning the MLS Cup isn’t exactly a consolation prize for Lionel Messi.
Of course, winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 would have been the cherry on top of a fabulous international career.
But the MLS Cup isn’t exactly some sort of participation trophy aimed at making up for losing out on the big enchilada. The MLS Cup is the biggest North American soccer trophy.
The level of competition needed to win the MLS championship is about as hard as it comes. In fact, the competitiveness in the MLS is quickly gaining on top European leagues. According to Global Football Rankings, the MLS comes in at #10 worldwide.
Topping the list in the English Premier League, with the Italian Serie A second, and the Spanish La Liga third. The MLS, meanwhile, trails the Brazilian Serie A by a slight margin.
The rankings show just how far the MLS has come since its inception in the mid-90s. The same rankings show Messi’s club ranked 79th in the world. While that may seem low, bear in mind there are thousands of pro soccer clubs around the world.
Miami got an 84.9 score, considering that other major teams like AC Milan ranked 71st with 85.2 points.
Don’t look now, but the MLS is well on its way to becoming one of the top five leagues in the world.
Messi Favored to Win Major Trophy after Missing Out on WC